BestBet: Friday , Churchill Downs Race 9 ELOPE 

A very lightly faced filly with tons of potential.Her only loss came at the hands of Indian Blessing running second but beat third place finisher by 5 lengths who’s previous start was a stake victory.
 
Next Best Bet:  Friday, Hawthorne Race 7 APPLESOLUTELY WILD 

This gelding has had seconditis in 8 career starts 1 win and 7 second place finishes but last race win was so impessive by 7 lengths ,I think this one is money in the bank
 
 
Value Play:  Friday, Turf Paradise Race 5  JOHN HENNESSY 

I picked this 1000 yd sprint race.I seen this horse get in a world of trouble last time going 870 yds,   Comes out of a hot barn winning 13 of 33 ang a great post position.Him and favorite BOBADIEU should run 1-2.

HERE ARE THE BRONCO’S PICKS FOR FRIDAY OCT 31ST FROM DELTA DOWNS.

BEST BET selection is the 6-1 moring line, STREET HERO.  RACE 5 – # 8.  WAGER ACROSS THE BOARD AND EXA PLAY OF 8 WITH 4-10-11
 
SOME MAY FEEL I’VE WENT OUT ON A LIMB HERE WITH THIS AS A BEST BET OF THE DAY, BUT I LIKE HOW THE HORSE RESPONDED LAST TIME TO THE EXTENDED DISTANCE, AFTER A SERIES OF ONE TURN PREPS! I AM ALSO IMPRESSED THAT THIS GUY BROKE HIS MAIDEN IN A GRADE I EVENT WHICH DOESN’T HAPPEN VERY OFTEN.  THOSE EARLY ONE TURN PREPS SET  HIM UP NICELY IN THIS SPOT AS HE TRIES TO DOUBLE UP AT THE SAME DISTANCE WITH SOLIS . 
 
NEXT BEST BET-  RACE 4 – # 11 WHATSTHESCRIPT WAGER ACROSS THE BOARD AND EXA 11 WITH 1-2-8
 
THE LATE CLOSING SPEED OF THIS SANTA ANITA TURF COURSE SHOULD SET UP NICELY FOR THIS HORSE. HIS LAST RACE AT DELMAR HAS A LOT OF SIGNIFICANCE, AS HE OVERCAME A HUGE HANDICAP THAT DAY CLOSING FROM 7TH AND WINNING ON A TURF COURSE AT DELMAR THAT IS NOT USUALLY KIND TO DEEP CLOSERS. HE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A MINOR HANDICAP TODAY WITH POST 11 WHICH ISN’T THE GREATEST IN A MILE RACE, BUT HIS DEEP CLOSING SPEED SH OULD OFFSET THAT. THE WORKOUT PATTERN AND BULLET WORK ON OCTOBER 11 SHOULD SERVE HIM WELL. PRIMED AND READY!
 
VALUE BET -  RACE 1 – # 1 CHURCH SERVICE WAGER ACROSS THE BOARD AND EXA PLAY UP AND DOWN  1 WITH 2-6-7 AND 2-6-7 WITH 1.
 
A VALUE PLAY WITH A MORNING LINE OF 10-1.  I AM NOT CONVINCED THAT HE’LL GO OFF AT THOSE GENEROUS ODDS.  I CONSIDERED THE FACT HE HASN’T BEEN UNDER 10-1 IN HIS LAST 4 STARTS NOT TO MENTION THE JOCKEY CHANGE TODAY TO EDGAR PRADO WHICH SHOULD KNOCK HIS ODDS DOWN FURTHER.  THIS HORSE IS BRED TO RUN ALL DAY LONG AND SEEMS TO LIKE THE SANTA ANITA STRIP. HE HAS FINISHED IN THE MONEY IN 5 OUT OF HIS 6 STAR TS AT SANTA ANITA.  MOST WILL FIND THE CHANGE TO PRADO AS BEING THE KEY ANGLE, BUT I ALSO LIKED HIS LAST START AT SANTA ANITA IN WHICH HE RAN A BANG UP SECOND IN A GRADE 3, IN A VERY RESPECTABLE 2:29 FOR THE MILE AND A HALF!
 
GOOD LUCK ON HOW YOU SEE IT. – BRONCOBUSTER.

Day 2 of the BC promises to be an exciting one as Curlin defends his Horse of the Year title in the Classic. Will he or won’t he succeed on the Pro-Ride? I think he will. So your BEST BET is CURLIN in RACE 9, The Breeders’ Cup Classic. If he is in his usual form, he should win this – despite tough competition from the Euros and his first trip on the synthetic surface. His works have been strong and he’s proven at this distance. You might want to pair him with Colonel John in the exotics to maximize your return. The Colonel is well rested, loves this track and should get a piece of this.

Your NEXT BEST BET is COST OF FREEDOM in RACE 7, The Sentient Flight Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He is definitely the horse for the course, undefeated in 3 starts on Santa Anita’s main track. The inside post is a concern, but I still have faith in this $50K claim. His works have been strong and he has been doing his best for Baze, who stays on board. If he can get past favorite Street Boss, as he narrowly did in his last outing, he could steal this.

Your VALUE BET is BIG BOOSTER in RACE 1, The Breeders’ Cup Marathon. The 3-month layoff is a bit of a concern, but he’s proven he can handle the distance and the synthetic surface, plus Bejarano is piloting. Booster could very well pull an upset at a decent price.

A late note for today’s Juvenile Fillies:

John Sadler’s barn is loaded and he looks set to have a great two days. Another runner of his that should be considered closely is EVITA ARGENTINA in the Juvenile Fillies. The daughter of Candy Ride appeared to be the leading juvenile filly on the West Coast early in the year but lost that spot when only fourth in the Del Mar Debutante (G1).  However, she was running on that day and extra distance and two turns will help her here. She has been freshened and is working well – most notably on Oct 2nd she worked with the older Tribal Chief who subsequently romped under Sandy Hawley in the “Legends Race”. 

 
Marathon

1. SIXTIES ICON  (ML 2/1) The 2006 English St. Leger winner is the lone grade/group one winner in the field. He is in great form, has top connections and his pedigree suggests he should not have a problem with the surface.
2. ZAPPA (ML 5/2) With little other early speed in the field he may take charge early as he did when wiring the field in a stakes race at Del Mar over this distance this summer. If allowed too much rein he maybe hard to reel in.
3. MUHANNAK (ML 20/1) Would be something of a surprise but does have a couple of positives. His last race was his lifetime best when defeating a decent group which included the highly rated Zulu Chief and group winner Arch Rebel on the Polytrack at Dundalk. He is 2 for 2 for his new trainer and is by Chester House, a leading all-weather sire.
Turf Sprint

1. CALIFORNIA FLAG (ML15/1) Speed, outside posts and proven ability to act over this tricky downhill course that has a right hand turn after the start are big advantages. This gelding qualifies on all counts and if he reproduces his shocking Morvich H. (G3) wire-to-wire victory a month ago he will be hard to catch in this very competitive event.
2. GET FUNKY (ML 9/2) California Flag is by no means the lone speed and is not assured an easy lead and if he is softened up early the most likely to benefit is this runner from John Sadler’s barn who was the runner up in the Morvich. He is a significant seven pounds better off at the weights with that rival, has won twice over this trip and is well drawn.
3. DIABOLICAL (ML 6/1) Former top US sprinter before being bought by Godolphin spent a fruitless summer in Europe this year but showed huge improvement when finishing a close second at Ascot last time out. His post position of eight poses no problem and a return to his old form makes him a serious contender.
Dirt Mile

1. LEWIS MICHAEL (ML 5/1)  No runners in this field are more perfectly suited to this one mile on the artificial surface than this one who has not raced since winning the Pat O’Brien H. at Del Mar in August. He was shipped back East by his high percentage trainer Wayne Catalano and has subsequently trained well at Arlington and Keeneland. There is plenty of early speed in here to benefit his stalking style and he should get a good trip from his inside post.
2. REBELLION (ML 15/1) His best distance has been somewhat hard to figure out but his closing second place finish to Lewis Michael at Del Mar, and his previous efforts over 7 furlongs, suggest that this mile trip will be perfect for this runner also.
3. SLEW’S TIZNOW (ML 15/1) Lightly raced three year old was impressive in the El Cajon S. when returning off a ten month break. Had previously finished second in Keeneland’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and Bejarano takes this mount over Rebellion.

Mile

1. GOLDIKOVA (ML 3/1) In what appears to be one of the weaker Breeders’ Cup Miles to have been run this filly appears to be a standout and anything close to her morning line would be an overlay—a more realistic 2/1 is the best price available in the UK. Fillies, especially from France that have been pointed to this race have an impressive record and her most recent victory over a field that included Henrythenavigator puts her well clear of a dubious field.
2. U S RANGER (ML 15/1) Interesting that this is the lone representative here from the powerful Aidan O’Brien string. Temperamental sort has thrown in some poor performances as well as good ones, most notably when narrowly missing in the July Cup (G1) at Newmarket. His running on third place finish in the Prix De La Foret (G1) which suggested the step up to a mile could be warranted and hinted a better to come.
3. KIP DEVILLE (ML 5/1) While his last race seemed too bad to be true it does not inspire confidence that he can return to his best form which he will need to do to beat Goldikova.

Juvenile

1. STREET HERO (ML 6/1) Big, strong late maturing type was a fairly impressive winner of the Norfolk S. (G1) here after being briefly checked turning for home. He is still improving and, like most of Street Cry’s offspring, is suited by artificial surfaces, is well drawn and has valuable experience over this surface and distance.
2. MIDSHIPMAN (ML 5/1) Was a good second to Street Hero in the Norfolk and like that rival will benefit from the experience. While it’s doubtful he can turn the tables on that rival, he should not be far away.
3. BUSHRANGER (ML 6/1) The form has worked out well for this Coolmore owned colt through Westphalia, whom he beat in the Anglesey S. (G2) winning the Champagne S. (G2) and when Lord Shanakill, who was third to him in the Prix Morny (G1), finished a close second in the Dewhurst S. (G1). Possibly on of the better foreign contenders in the Juvenile in recent years, he will have to over come a wide post which may not favor his tracking style.

Juvenile Turf

1. WESTPHALIA (ML 5/1) In and out performer from Coolmore threw in a clunker with no apparent excuse when a beaten odds-on favorite in the Futurity S. (G2) before winning the Champagne S. (G2) at Doncaster. He was somewhat rank early in the Champagne so a likely faster pace will help as will the extra furlong and form lines through his second place finish to Bushranger puts him among the top European juveniles.
2. BITTEL ROAD (ML 7/2) Put up an extraordinarily impressive performance when winning the Bourbon S. (G3) at Keeneland passing most of the field in the stretch to win by a head. A repeat of that performance will see him close here but a wide post and a cut back in distance by half a furlong are not to his advantage.
3. GRAND ADVENTURE (ML 5/1) Canadian invader defeated Skipadate by a head in the Summer S. (G3) which puts him close, on form, to Bittel Road who had beaten that same runner by a similar margin at Belmont.
Sprint

1. STREET BOSS (ML 3/1) Unable to catch Cost Of Freedom who got first run on him in the Ancient Title S. (G1) last time but with more speed in here he should be able to turn the tables.
2. COST OF FREEDOM (ML 4/1) Has shown improvement since being claimed by Sadler and is working lights out for this.
3. BLACK SEVENTEEN (ML15/1) Showed a new dimension last time when rating before catching pacesetter Fabulous Strike on the wire in the Vosburgh (G1). If able to duplicate that performance he may be an overlay here.

Turf

1. SOLDIER OF FORTUNE (ML 7/2) With just three starts this year the Aidan O’Brien runner warmed up for this with a fine third place finish in the Arc. That form, along with performances such as his nine length Irish Derby romp makes him hard to oppose here.
2. EAGLE MOUNTAIN (ML 6/1) Well beaten third behind Soldier Of Fortune in the Irish Derby when under the Coolmore banner. Has since been switched to the stable of Michael De Kock and made his first start for his new connections a winning one at Newmarket earlier this month having not raced for a year. Is intriguing but still has lengths to make up on his ex-stable mate.
3. RED ROCKS (ML 5/1) Previous winner showed his appreciation for American turf racing conditions when he defeated Curlin in the Man O’War S. (G1). Should be suited to Santa Anita’s turf course and if fully recovered from the minor injury that forced him to miss his scheduled start in the Sword Dancer (G1) he could be a factor here.

Classic
1. RAVEN’S PASS (ML 6/1) The Breeders’ Cup (although originally the Mile was the target) has been the long term goal for Raven’s Pass for much of the season and, unlike Henrythenavigator and Duke Of Marmalade who both appear to be past their best, he has improved with each race and is in top form. While stamina was an issue in the spring, he indicated through his strong finish when winning the Queen Elizabeth S. (G1) that a mile, at least on the turf, is not his limit. His pedigree leads one to believe that the surface will not be a problem and his adaptable running style will be an advantage. Beyond Fairbanks there is little early speed in the Classic field so, with relatively easy fractions expected he should be in perfect position to take the lead turning for home and maybe tough to run down.
2. CURLIN (ML 7/5) Obviously the horse to beat but there is certainly the possibility that he is past his best and there is also the question of whether he will handle the surface.
3. CHAMPS ELYSEES (ML 15/1) An interesting spot for one that might have been expected to be better suited to the Turf. However, his one run on the synthetic was an encouraging third when closing from far back in the Santa Anita H. (G1). Blinkers are added in an effort to get him closer to the pace.
As with day 1 my betting strategy will again be to look for value in the win pool but also to key my top picks in rolling pick threes and trifectas.

Best bet: Race 8, Soldier Of Fortune
Next best: Race 5, Street Hero
Value bet: Race 9, Raven’s Pass

Best Bet…SA RACE 7..(4) Midnight Lute.  
 
Value Play…SA RACE 6..(10) Skipadate. 
 
BOMBS AWAY… 
 
SA RACE 2…(7) Rouse The Cat.
 
 
SA RACE 8…(8) Spring House. 
 
Pick 3 SA Race 5..
 
3-4/5-10/2-4.

Did everyone catch the biggest payoff of the day Sealy Hill, you have to listen closely. This event comes around once a year the payoffs can last that long. Keep your eyes off the scenic mountain backdrop and on the BReeders Cup card.
 
Santa Anita
 
Best Bet…Race 3….. #10 Rebellion m/l 15/1
Next Best.Race 9……#12 Champs Elysee m/l 20/1
Value Bet Race 3……Boxed exacta #10 #12  Rebellion Lord Admiral

Breeders Cup Picks

Best Bet Friday Zenyatta.
Next Best Stardom Bound in the Juvenile Fillies.
Value Play is Renda in the fillies Turf.

I plan on wagering about half of my overall breeders cup budget on Renda.

Saturday’s Picks

Best bet is sixties icon in the marathon.
Next best bushranger in the juvenile.
Value Play  pyro in the dirt mile.

I also like bittle road and the two candadian colts skipadate and grand adventure in the juvenile turf sipadate is as game as they come and rates my price play special another contender who must be respected is coronet of a baron.

Best of wagering.

Let the Breeders Cup commence. Arcadia California and were all dreaming. In the shadows of Hollywood, the perfect setting for the equine stars to perform. Friday is for the female gender of this noble sport, everyone has a talking horse at this global event, but is anyone listening. Allow me to entice you to new found riches with my picks for todays card.

Best bet…Race 3. #13 Tizzy’s Tune win place show m/L 30/1.
Next Best…Race 4. #10 Beyond Our Reach Win Place Show M/L 15/1.
Value Bet…Race 6 #1 Seal Hill M/L 15/1

The Horse Whisperer

Fantastic races, despite dilution.

My first impression of this year’s Breeders’ Cup fields was of slight disappointment, a justification of my view that adding extra races has been a detriment to this event. I have always felt that the addition of these races has diluted the product, made it bigger of course, but at the cost of making it weaker.

The introduction of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, the first new race to be incorporated into the series, robbed the fans the chance of seeing the likes of Ouija Board and Islington, to name two, running against the colts in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Surely Ouija Board would have been competitive (to say the least) against Better Talk Now who won the Turf in 2004 or Red Rocks the 2006 victor, the two years the English filly was able to take the easy route to secure Breeders’ Cup triumphs. For those who counter that it is unfair to run the fillies against the males should remember the sex of Pebbles and Miss Alleged, two previous winners of the Turf as well as the this year’s smashing Prix de L’Arc De Triomphe  winner Zarkava.

The dilution did not end with the Filly and Mare Turf. Indeed, last year three more races were added including the Filly and Mare Sprint which, mysteriously is run over seven furlongs (although not last year since Monmouth Park is not able to run seven furlong races). The powers to be must not have enjoyed seeing Very Subtle, Safely Kept or Desert Stormer win the Sprint against the colts, not to mention the likes of Meafara, Honest Lady or Xtra Heat who came so close. Last year’s Sprint drew a field of ten—the smallest field since 1986 when nine runners faced the starter. That figure of nine runners will be matched this year which makes one wonder if the days of seeing exciting full fields of 14 are a thing of the past for the Sprint, especially with the introduction of the Turf Sprint providing another option.

The Dirt Mile was run for the first time last year providing an outlet for horses basically not good enough to factor in the Classic. For those that believed that this race would attract top dirt “milers” they are mistaken for the only grade one winners in the field are Well Armed who won the 9 furlong Goodwood H. and the 10 furlong Hollywood Gold Cup winner, Mast Track—both whom would be aimed at the Classic if this easier option did not exist. At the other end of the scale the Breeders’ Cup Marathon will be introduced this year, which of course like all the other “dirt” races will be contested over the Pro-Ride, non-dirt, surface. I wonder how the late John Gaines whose dream became the Breeders’ Cup, would feel about this race that has attracted precisely one grade/group one winner, being run as the opener of what he envisioned as a “Championship Day”.

My initial negative feelings towards the now two-day event were however, replaced by excitement upon seeing the final entries and recognizing that these are still great races and it is days of racing like these that we all look forward to.

Filly and Mare Sprint. 

1. VENTURA (ML 5/1) Closer in field with plenty of speed has been freshened by Frankel and shows an impressive 58 3/5 move over this surface on Saturday. Has good artificial surface pedigree and backs this up with two wins, including the Madison S. at Keeneland at this distance, from three starts on artificial surfaces.
2. ZAFTIG (ML 8/1) Defeated probable favorite, and possibly over-bet Indian Blessing in her last outing in June. Has been laid off since but has been working well for good comeback trainer James Jerkins. Also has a good pedigree for this surface and will be running from off the pace.
3. INTANGAROO (ML 9/2) May need some luck to work out a good closing trip from her # 3 post, but will be running late.
4. DEAREST TRICKSKI (ML 15/1) While there is plenty of other speed in here if, by chance, this filly does get to establish a clear lead, she could be gone. Is 2 for 2 at this distance over synthetic surfaces and this is one of many horses trained by John Sadler that should be considered over the two days.

Fillies Turf.

1. CONSEQUENCE (ML 8/1) Well-bred Phipps/McGaughey filly finished third behind two others show up here in New York’s Miss Grillo S. She was a little rank that day, was caught on the rail and steadied but still finished a close fourth. She may appreciate a faster pace and firmer turf and will provide value in a wide open event.
2. LARAGH (ML 7/2) Took advantage of an easy lead to win Keeneland’s Jessamine S. and if the same situation presents itself her she could repeat.
3. EMMY DARLING (ML 8/1) Landaluce S. winner makes her turf debut for Sadler but worked in 59 1/5 on the grass and owns some turf pedigree on her damside.

Juvenile Fillies.

1. C. S. SILK (ML 15/1) despite being drawn just inside expected pacesetter Palacio De Amor will try to rate just off that one. Showed the ability to rate when breaking her maiden and was hugely impressive when wiring a solid field to win the Arlington Washington Lassie S. (G3). Has been freshened since, is working well for Dale Romans and Robby Albarado sticks with her.
2. STARDOM BOUND (ML 2/1) Is the legitimate favorite having used her huge late kick to win two grade one races including the Oak Leaf over this surface and distance. Gets a good outside draw for her running style.
3. PERSISTENTLY (ML 15/1) Finished well to be in the money in both the Frizette S. (G1) and Matron S. (G2) in New York. Should be suited by the Pro Ride and will be closing with Stardom Bound but may need some luck to get a good trip from the number two post.
4. PURSUIT OF GLORY (ML 8/1) Coolmore entrant broke her maiden on the all weather track at Dundalk before finishing third in England’s best two-year-old filly event, the  Cheveley Park S. (G1). Should not be ignored despite an unfavorable post. 

Filly and Mare Turf.

1. HALFWAY TO HEAVEN (ML 4/1) This is not the strongest Filly & Mare Turf renewel and this filly has been knocking heads with the best in Europe all year. She defeated the super talented Lush Lashes at Goodwood and finished third behind the exceptional Zarkava and Mile favorite Goldikova in the French One Thousand Guineas. Is at her best on firm ground and if she is not feeling the effects of some fairly hard races she is a standout here.
2. VISIT (ML 15/1) Juddmonte Farm entry was a closing third behind Halfway To Heaven in her last start, the Sun Chariot S. (G1) at Newmarket. Is fresh having just three starts this year and Michael Stoute’s Breeders’ Cup record speaks for itself.
3. WAIT A WHILE (ML 3/1) Is in top form, is at her best on firm turf and certainly is America’s leading chance here.

Ladies Classic

1. COCOA BEACH (ML 8/1) Hard to oppose the favorite but this filly was hugely impressive when winning the UAE Oaks in February and acquitted herself well when finishing third in the UAE Derby against the colts. She is fresh and showed huge potential when defeating Ginger Punch in her last race. Being the joint fourth choice in the morning line she could provide value and is a logical winner if Zenyatta does not bring her best game.
2. ZENYATTA (ML 3/5) Will be the shortest priced favorite in any of the Breeders’ Cup races, and rightly so.

While looking for value win bets, my betting strategy will be to key my top picks in rolling pick threes and trifectas.

So to recap and let the Bugle sound!

Best Bet – Race 6 – #8, Halfway to Heaven

Next Best – Race 3 – #12, Ventura

Value Bet – Race 5 – #8, C.S. Silk