OK, repeat after me, “I BELIEVE IN THE BREEDERS CUP BOUNCE”.!!!!
6-I repeat-SIX horses that ran and were bet heavily in THE BREEDERS CUP DID NOT WIN THIS WEEKEND -SO FAR-AND WERE FAVORED IN ALL THEIR RACES..
Yesterday I again went against a heavy favorite at Hollywood in BITTEL ROAD and said MR ROD would get it done. MR ROD WON–PAID 15.60.MERRY CHRISTMAS..!!!..
I had several other winners yesterday at various tracks beating BC runners, BUT alas I can only give you 3 bets a day..Notice I play the STAKES alot, thats where big favorites are most vulnerable and I PROVE IT .
 
BEST BET–HOLLYWOOD  RACE 7–# 5 ROSINKA.
PRECIOUS KITTEN will be favored here off her 4th place finish in the BC MILE—TOSS HER.ROSINKA , coming off a 2nd in the Las Palmas, has her tightner on the west coast for Graham Motion. Jeremy Rose gets another shot with her today and she will not dissappoint. The daughter of miler Soviet Star will be the speed and not get caught today.
 
NEXT BEST–HOLLYWOOD RACE 9–# 7 GIO PONTI.
Key move here..ALAN GARCIA OFF…GARRETT GOMEZ ON= WINNER. For all the wins Garcia gets, for all the money he is one of my least favorite jocks, put the over-rated John Velazquez on that list as well. For my money Gomez is one of the top big money riders in the U.S. He will sitr close and move early and take home the money in the final race og the Hollywood turf weekend.
 
VALUE BET–HOLLYWOOD RACE 9—EXACTA BOX # 7 GIO PONTI/ # 2 COURT VISION.
Play this exotic many times today  as both these are coming in this race razor sharp. The difference here is GOMEZ, but box them , for insurance.

Closing day at Churchill Downs will feature the best and brightest babies in its 4th annual Stars of Tomorrow event – 12 races for up and coming 2-yr-olds. Hot trainer Kenneth McPeek has a whopping 14 entries (incl. 3 AEs) today! But we’ll also be bidding a fond farewell to a Superstar of Today – Curlin will take his final parade on the Churchill track between the fifth and sixth races. Happy Retirement, Curlin!
Your BEST BET is SUGAR MOM in RACE 10 (7-2 ML). In a little over her head in her last and should be a much better fit here. Trainer is 34% with 2YOs and this jockey/trainer combo is to be respected.

Your NEXT BEST BET is ROCKIN’ JOE in RACE 5 (4-1 ML). This guy has not finished out of the money in his 4 starts at 4 different venues – the last 2 were wins. He has been steadily improving and should be ready for his Churchill debut.

Your VALUE BET is MELO in RACE 8 (10-1 ML). Broke his maiden in the mud here and should like the added distance in his first race with winners. Should be in the thick of this.

Back down here at Laurel Park which is an absolute hive of activity this time of year. Big fields the nations crossroads for traveling horses. We have a cracking record of landing the big ones. So put the money on and help me push these babys home.
 
BEST BET   Race 4   # 6 Blind Date.
                                This guy has not put a foot wrong in two races found 7f just a tad to far drops back to 6f had a break but comes back with some sharp works. Sweet Dixie Girl will be the speed and should hang on for the exacta.
 
NEXT BEST   Race 9  # 5 Meadow Loch.
                                Tough claiming race… these kind of races are the bread and butter of American racing always like the angle of new trainer this guy has had 3 of them must have something going for him. Conditions of race are non winners of two he shold crak that at a price.
 
VALUE BET   Race 9 # 4 Love’s Strong Hart
                                 Whats not to like about this guy should have ran yesterday didnt. Beyer two races ago a whopping 101 trainer stats off the board. has the 3yo Basha’s Moon to contend with and Saay Mi Name. He will go off around 5/1 if nobody reas this blog…. use him on top of the other two as well as a straight WIN.
 
SSSh H.W.

NO LEFT-OVERS HERE
 
MONSIEUR CONTOIS again criss-crossing the boarder with some fresh hot picks.I’ve been on a down slope the last couple weeks but handicaped and ready for Saturday racing action.
 
BEST BET HAWTHORNE Race 1 #4 HURTA (ML 5/2) Lots to like about this one.He comes off an 8 length victory in his lone start on the dirt.In that start easily wired the field in a sharp time. Today hits another field where any other speed is hard to find thus Ithink he’ll live up to his name and lay a big HURTA on this field.
 
NEXT BEST BET WOODBINE Race 8 #12 SHUT IT DOWN (ML 3/1) Proved his ability last out ,after bobbling early and trailing the field for the first time ever in 5 starts he patiently sat and at the head of the lane exploded past the field like they were standing still. Not bad for a “speedball”.Today faces the same company but it’s tough to say what he will do with the lack of pace in here.With 2yo once they figure out how to run they can show their best races .I think he has figured it out.
 
VALUE BET TURF PARADISE Race 8 #6 EDMOND (ML 4/1) Is in a tough AZ bred futurity. He posesses blazing early speed, which carried him to victory in his maiden debut.Last out broke 4 in front with a camel clutch and waited for the field and was run down late.Rider switch today to Vergara who likes to let’em run early.Catch me if you can!!!!!            BONNE CHANCE M.C.

I got my reputation not playing short price horses, but looking for short priced favorites that are bad plays and very beatable. This was evident yesterday in The Clark  Hcp. at Churchill and the Citation at Hollywood. I gave you EINSTEIN to beat Commentator who was a bad 1/5 shot and I told you he was beatable . EINSTEIN payed a gift price of 11.80. And at Hollywood I said that short priced favorite WHATSTHESCRIPT would be a victim of “the breeders cup bounce”. He ran a bad 6th, unfortunately my pick was scratched, but it gave you insight to play against the bad favorite….
 
BEST BET–CHURCHILL RACE 6–# 5 SELECTIVE.
Horse made a premature move last out in the Grade III Pocahantas won by SARALOUISE (who is in today and has a big shot in the GRADE II Golden Rod). SELECTIVE cuts back from the mile to todays 6 1/2 furlong distance. Can sit just off or even make the pace if no one else goes early. Will be tough to beat today for Steve Assmussens barn in 2nd race off the layoff to boot.
 
NEXT BEST–CHURCHILL RACE 11==# 4 STORMALORY.
Regally bred colt seems to have put things together once sent a 2 turn route. Ran 2nd going 1 1/16th at Chruchill Nov. 1 beat by the # 3 horse in todays race, BEETHOVEN.  The latter was used real hard to win in his last while STORMALORY was making a late move. There is still lots left in the tank for todays tilt and I think Billy Mott had todays race in mind last time and that was a prep for todays race. He lost the battle in last but will win the war today.
 
VALUE PLAY–HOLLYWOOD RACE 5–# 2 MR.ROD.
Pace makes a race, and there isn’t much in here. # 2 MR. ROD tried turf for the 1st time in last, the result was a dominating 4+ length win. There are lots of off the pace types in here,but no speed–except for MR ROD. All Miss Sutherland has to do is break clean and hold on. This son of Scrimshaw(who won the Derby Trial a few years back at todays distance of a mile) is bred for the mile and has shown he loves the green. Get some green for yourself today and make a bet on MR ROD.

HANOVER KID OR KING? SERVING UP SOME CROWN PICKS FROM THE BIG M.
 
The stage is set at the BIG M Saturday as a group of 2 and 3 yr old’s go postward to do battle in this years Breeder’s crown. For most it will be the finale to their season, for some the finale to a great but short career!
Such will be the case for 3 yr old pacer Somebeachsomewhere, as he looks to end his career Saturday night with one last Breeder’s Crown, which he can add to his all impressive resume. The 3 yr old son of Mach Three has amassed over 3 million in earnings in 2 short seasons by mostly displaying a dominance over most he’s faced. At a time when the industry needs hero’s and stars like him, it will be sad that the fans of this sport will  not witness him back for his 4 yr old season! But, thats th e reality and the dillema that racing faces in general!
Our stars are dashed to the breeding shed long before the fans are ready to see them go! Thats a whole other topic of its own! For now, we get one last chance to witness a true champion! I over heard a fan say that Somebeachsomewhere is the best that he has seen since Niatross, so that puts him in pretty good company. Saturday night will be his chance to go out in a blaze of glory,but not before having to defeat the likes of Shadowplay one last time.  Let’s not underestimate this guy for he d id win the Little Brown Jug and has had a good season in his own right. If he does go down in defeat again to Somebeachsomewhere, it won’t be without a fight. 
 
Another horse with champion status that has to be mentioned in the same light, but on the trot side is Deweycheatumnhowe.  A brilliant 3 yrd old season and he looks to end his career tonight in the same fashion and make the same statements as Somebeachsomewhere.  He is another planning to exit the scene before we are ready to see him go.  His season has been just as dominant and includes a win in the prestigous Hambletonian. He was sparkling that day and a repeat effort of that will give him a crown of his own!
 
While the spotlight is surely on these two champions, the night offers a slew of crown undercards that will have a drama of their own!  Included in the mix is a race that could shape up to be one for the ages in the 2 yr old colt trot division as Muscle Hill and Explosive Matter look to end their season undefeated! Only one is likely to do that, unless someone else has an ace up their sleeve!  Upsets aren’t anything new in the Crown! We all remember Bays Fella’s stunner in the 1990 at 69-1! P aul MacDonnell was the driver that night and drives Somebeachsomewhere tonight! 
 
I’m not sure if a stunner like that is in the cards this year, but here are my selections for this years Breeder’s Crown races.
 
Race 2  #3 All Star Hanover, M/L 8-1  Joe Holloway capable of having this guy ready.
Race 3 #2  Hawaiian Drink, M/L 2-1    What a night to remember for Tracy Brainard!
Race 4 #8  Latern Kronos, M/L 5-2     Likes his chances with right trip and Campbell in the bike
Race 5 #5  Tom Cango, M/L 15-1         Is this the ace up Campbell’s sleeve that ends a streak for 2 horses?
Race 6 #8  Deweycheatumnhowe, M/L 6-5 Table is set for this guy to go out the true champion that he is!
Race 7- #1 Major in Art, M/L 9-5  has rail control and controls his own destiny
Race 8- #10 Good News Lady, M/L 8-1  Can the Gris win this from way out there? hmmm
Race 9- #3  Somebeachsomewhere, M/L 3-5  Rides off into the sun set with a cool 3 million and a crown!
 
Best of luck at the windows and remember we are all blessed when it comes to being able to witness a card and horses with this much magnatude!  It will be a night to remember!

BEST BET–HOLLYWOOD PARK RACE 8–# 2 GALANTAS.
At first look the obvious horse to play here seems to be (9) WHATSTHESCRIPT coming out of a fast close for 3rd in the BC Mile.But I am expecting “The Breeders Cup Bounce ” here. It seems all horse that come back on a quick turnaround after the BC run badly, and at short prices too. (2) GALANTAS comes into todays race off and nice 2nd in a Grade III at Hawthrone off a layoff of more than a year. Graham Motion isn’t in California for the sun, and he brings his “go to guy”, Jeremy Rose, for the mount.Last year, his last race was a 3rd to Shakespere and eventual BC Winner Kip Deville. So his class can’t be questioned. Coming to Cali off several nice Fair Hill works, Motion appears to ahve the screws tightened today here.
 
NEXT BEST–AQUEDUCT RACE 8–# 4 SLEWFOUNDMONEY.
Marty Wolfson ships north for this Grade II and has big money rider, Eddie Castro in the irons. This horse is coming in to the race off 2 real nice wins over the deep Calder strip. And since his last win has put in 4 BULLET WORKS at Calder as well. I always like to play Calder shippers going against the grain at this time of year. Look for the cool air to get this filly going and take home the top prize here.
 
VALUE PLAY– CHURCHILL RACE 11–# 3 EINSTEIN.
OK, you want 3-5 with Commentator, you take it. I’m not. Commentator is a horse that looks great one day and terrible the next. I’m betting on terrible today. I’m taking EINSTEIN here because I know he’s in shape and will get the distance but most of all, he’ll get first jump at Commentator when the duel between him and Timber Reserve takes it’s toll. Other’s will be coming late, but by then it will be too late to catch EINSTEIN.And tHE last time EINSTEIN was on the CD dirt, he was a respectable 2nd to a horse named CURLIN..enough said.

Hollywood starts its Festival of Turf today with the Gr1 Citation stakes with some quality milers from the dirt and turf lining up to do battle,Rebellion, Whatascript, and Formal Decree, to name a few.  Nice pool carryover should create  more than the usual Friday interest.
 
BEST BET   Race 2  #1 Star Redeemer
                  A bunch of California juveniles maidens at that, this guy has been tried at a bigger distance and higher class didnt disgrace himself. everything looks and sounds right today will be a worthy favourite, jockey change will definatly suit.
 
NEXT BEST   Race 4  # 2 Il Girasole
                    Bunch of workmanlike claimers this guy had a sparkling debut at Saratoga on the turf beating derby runner Adriano. Pletcher ships him in from Churchill where they are in the middle of a meet. Iam sensing he is liking the sun already, big run today.
 
VALUE BET   Race 10  # 7 Beckett
                   You look at this guys best beyers and he is a winner at that 5 and half pole. He finally gets the distance today,  couple of bullets over the track, cath me if you can….. unfashionable connections…. hey we will take the price though.  H.W.

Now that everyone is stuffed from all that turkey feast, it’s time to get back to winners circle with a healthy set of selections from the Fairgrounds.  
 
Best Bet – Race 3 #4 Nakika, M/L 5-1.  3 yr. old filly been on the shelf since February, after 2 off the board finishes in MSW.  I have to figure the connections decided to give her time to mature as she comes back with a series of good works and comes back into a MSW tilt.  The good works and the fact that she doesn’t surface in with claimers tell me she is good to go! 
 
Next Best Bet- Race 5 #1 Monhocracy, M/L 9/2. Florida bred who was claimed in his last start at Keeneland when in for 25K against open claimers.  Todays tag is 30K but against N3L and should get a nice trip from the rail.  Been on the poly since June, so it will be interesting to see him on the dirt, but should be just fine with 3 razor sharp dirt works since being claimed!!  Best effort topples them all.
 
Value Bet- Race 4 #2 Mystery Tune, M/L 9/2.  Another one who was put on the shelf early in her 3 yr old year. She lit up the board in her maiden debut at 25-1 and then had 2 subsequent failures at low odds.  Unlike my best bet, this one drops out of a starter allowance and back into a claimer for N2L, which should help her chances.  Other indicators include good works, hot trainer/jock combination, a morning line favorite who is trained by Mark Casse which hasn’t raced in over a year!  If that one takes the support, this one may offer a decent price with a decent chance!
 
go gettum – broncobuster

Picks for 11-28

BEST BET: Churchill Race 4: HYRACOTHERIUM (ML 3/1). May not have cared for the surface at Hoosier when he was unplaced as the favorite in his last start. Was previously in great form winning three times and placing second in a stakes race at Presque Isle in his four earlier starts. Has been briefly freshened by in-form trainer, Dale Romans, has won four of eleven turf starts, including one race over this course and distance. With enough speed entered to set up his late run he looks the one to beat.

NEXT BEST: Fair Grounds Race 4: MYSTERY TUNE (ML 9/2). Broke her maiden impressively before joining Cody Autrey who has won with nearly half his runners so far at this meet. Has not raced since last March but has been training forwardly and Jamie Theriot takes the mount.

VALUE BET: Fair Grounds Race 6: VICK’S VIOLET (ML 6/1). Takes a big class drop to this maiden claimer a straight maiden at Keeneland. She was wide while dueling for the lead that day before fading but with other speed in here may try to rate just off the early pace.