Happy Thanksgiving! My little family gathering has shrunk to only three. so instead of spending a day and a half toiling in the kitchen, I decided to let Churchill Downs do the cooking this year. Live racing, turkey and spending the day with my two favorite guys, hubby and dad. It doesnʼt get much better than that. Except for winning of course! And with a 12 race card, we should have plenty of opportunity. Letʼs see if we can put the whipped cream on our pumpkin pie with some winners at Churchill.
Your BEST BET is SKYLIGHTER in RACE 11, The Fall City Handicap (8-1 ML). This steadily improving girl is coming off 3 straight wins, the most recent at the G2 Indiana Oaks, and red hot Leparoux takes the reins. Recent bullets at Keeneland indicate sheʼs ready for this one.
Your NEXT BEST BET is INDYAMA JONES in RACE 5 (4-1 ML). This gray made a big move forward in his sophomore race. Albarado jumps off other contenders to stay in the irons and this jockey/trainer combo is .32 this meet.
Your VALUE BET is LAURAʼS JINSKY in RACE 1 (8-1 ML). This guy just placed here in the mud at this level and he should move forward for the win in his 4th outing.
Twas the day before the big turkey shoot, the pilgrims brought to this land a lot of things, most of all the sport of kings. Or was that later.? Aqueduct can be a turkey shoot if you dont take guidance this is a unforgiving place for horse and player alike. We have the edge though, let hope we have the weather unlike Finger lakes upstate yesterday.
BEST BET Race 8 # 6 Ididntmeantoo
The two perverbial Kings of the castle connected here Prado/Dutrow. This ex west coaster looking for a hatrick today slim pickens odds wise , nevertheless a bird in the hand is worth?
NEXT BEST Race 7 # 1 Please Impress
A double helping of the previous selections, connections. This guy has been going all year a worthy note, his beyer scores increase with every race see no change here.
VALUE BET Race 5 # 3 Royal Spaulding
Looked like he had the stuffing knocked out of him in the last race. Comes back over a more comfortable distance mainly a turf horse but change of scenery having been claimed will turn this pumpkin into a princess for the day. “Go get em Pilgrim”. H.W.
BEST BET: Churchill Race 6: # 8 TEMPLE STREET (ML 5/2). Street Cry filly closed quickly eight wide to impressively win her last start for red hot connections. She takes a sizeable step up in class but the ease of her last win suggests she can handle it.
NEXT BEST: Churchill Race 4: # 1 TRIQUETA (ML 6/1). First time starter makes her debut on the turf for Ken McPeek who is currently scoring at a 31 % win rate. Has a decent pedigree for the grass, gets the inside post with Desormeaux and sports an impressive work tab.
VALUE BET: Churchill Race 11: # 5 SWIFT TEMPER (ML 10/1). Four-year-old has really improved since being transferred to the barn of Dale Romans. Was a little rank early on in her last start after being checked but still ran on well late to be a close third. She should appreciate the extra furlong and there is enough speed in this competitive race to ensure an honest pace.
Happy Thanksgiving !!
BONJOUR MONSIEUR CONTOIS here with another helping of picks to make sure santa doesn’t miss your house.First off though ALLEZ or (go team )Whisperer and Lady Luck,GOOD JOB ! on rockin the toteboard at 12/1 and 13/1 .I’ll try to follow suit.
BEST BET WOODBINE Race 2 #2 WHITE SPOT (ML 7/2) Was making his first start off an 8 month layoff and ran a credible third beaten only 2 3/4 L.But at the start clipped heels which cost him some ten legths after almost going down.After watching the film I was surprised by thr big late run the best of three others he faces today.I also like the freshening work recently that goes with his last three finishes all hitting the board.
NEXT BEST BET CHARLES TOWN Race 5 #6 AMICI DI MARIA (ML 9/2) Should be a close stalker in here as it appears to be void of early pace.An impessive 6 1/2 length maiden win last out shows me that this improving filly has what it takes.It also doesn’t hurt that the barn has a 25% win clip.
VALUE BET LAUREL Race 9 #9 LIGHTNING FORCE (ML 12/1) This strong late closer has found the right race to show his best with this speed filled field.The last time the jock was aboard it resulted in a victory in Charles Town.Last start a poor break cost him hitting the board expect a big late run at a price.
BONNE CHANCE M.C.
With Thanksgiving this Thursday, Broncobuster is serving up a little bit of early Turkey for a Wacky Wednesday from Delta Downs.
Delta Downs selections-
Best Bet- Race 5 #2 Willoughby, M/L 2/1. Debuted at Keeneland on the poly and didn’t seem to get involved enough. His latest at Remington on the same surface as today was a better indicator. He’s was only beaten a couple of lengths that day in a time that was fairly rapid when compared with the horses he faces today. Anything close to a repeat puts this guy in the winners circle and has the services of a very capable Gerard Melancon.
Next Best Bet – Race 2 #1 Miss Matty G, M/L 8-1. Trainer sends out 2 in a non coupled entry and I’m hunching the longer of the two gets the job done. The other half is actually the morning line favorite so we’ll take a spin and see if this guy can upset the apple cart. One angle to consider is this filly has already won a N3L but gets back in into this tilt because the race she won was not considered. Perhaps the experience of already winning a N3L race (all be it against claimer s) will serve her well against the rest of the field which have yet to do so. Wager across the board just in case the other Spencer entry is too tough for her.
Value Bet – Race 1 – #5 Chuckies Love, #9 Third N Home, #10 Late but Great. Tough to separate these 3 contenders so the value play is to serve up the turkey, mashed potatoes, and pumpkin pie all in one shot and hope an EXA and TRI box return a healthy dose! EXA/TRI box 5-9-10.
Go gettum and happy thanksgiving everyone! – Broncobuster.
Beauty of a selction by H.W on Monday. Might be winter racing in some places, but the palm trees at Calder sure didn’t look like they had any snow on them and was nice to see a 13/1 selection cruise home!
Broncobuster was resigned to table scraps out in the Desert when the best bet a 3/1 morning line reported in at just $ 3.00 !! The horse still got his picture taken but, it hardly paid for the parking and the DRF. Tuesday’s card appears to have a fair bit of chalk possibilites on it, but thats not going to pay the Xmas Layaway, so i’ve gone value shopping in an attempt to line my xmas stocking!
Turf Paradise selections- Not sure if watching Calder today has anything to do with the picks, but coincidently all 3 of my selections today are Florida breds!
Best bet- Race 5 #6 Nook and Granny, M/L 3/1. This 3 yr old filly has fallen on hard times and downward sprial continues in an attempt to put a win on the page! Last winter she raced in a 50K stake right here at T.P was the favorite that day! Been down hill ever since. A summer failure at Delmar when in for $ 62,500! Her last start was off the board finish at Hollywood for 12,500! today the plunge to 6,250! Class wise she stands out! that doesn’t always win races, make sure she physically looks the part race day, before diving in!
Next Bet Bet- Race 2 #7 Tootsie’s Flame, M/L 6-1. Was plucked out of a 10 claimer last start and gives the ALW N1X a try. This classifiction shouldn’t be outside of her scope, as she’s faced much tougher! When right this mare likes to race, in the money 8/9 career starts, but had a 2 yr layoff prior to her last 2 races and must look o.k to be plucked for 10K last out! lots of inside speed should have her in stalking mode! All systems go today with the right trip.
Value bet- Race 8 #4 Onogottogo, M/L 12-1. Going against a very logical one whose trainer is winning 33%. But the expected price won’t buy my dog a bone so I’m going elsewhere hoping for the upset. This guy was moving on the end of it last out managed to go by 5 horses at 6.5F and today stretches it out to a mile. The added distance should be to his liking and if he can stay in contact could be the spoiler. Wager across the board and hope this guy knows the xmas layaway must be paid!
No whispering going on in these quarters. I’am shouting my selections from the hill tops after yesterdays stunning success at Calder.
It is always tempting to preserve a good record by not making any immeadiate selections. That will never happen with the Horse Whisperer, he is empowered to pass on every scrap of information secured by his special methods.
Communication is the name of the game. Winning is the end result.
BEST BET Finger Lakes Race 1 # 3 Fist of the Fleet
6 tracks 4 states in 10 months.LIsred races down to his lowest mark 4k claimers. He is bound to feel beating up. One more effort, if he is brought of the pace he will pip Port Rock.
NEXT BEST Finger Lakes Race 8 # 4 Cured
90% in the money in 08 Chalk last two outings he is a specialist 51/2 guy. Tough to beat beat again.
VALUE BET Double digit guy real value. Trainer/Owner who went all the way to Boston to claim this guy. Second start after a freshner only bad race was in the heat in Tampa. Tough cookie with a coool price you can bite into.
H.W.
A winter monday in racing…the anti climax day after a thrilling weekend of racing home and abroad. This is where dedication prevails in horse and man versus the elements of the season and the adjustment of racing at a winter track.
Calder.
BEST BET Race 1 # 6 Barley Sugar
Hardley anything seperating the whole field in this 10k claimer. The selection could be the suprise package turf guy but powerfull at the distance and dropping down in class. He will be doing his best work in the stretch.
NEXT BEST Race 6 # 12 Galactic Glide
Its a Monday but its competitive an upset could be on the cards these guys are all waiting for the perverbial pin to choose them. experienced horses with lifetime earnings of $1500 what does that say of this gathering. The 12 is the choice of the locals.
VALUE BET Race 8 # 5 Cinque Terre
Phaleonopsis will be a tough cookie to beat had a good summer, strong beyers distance turf in his favour. However Cinque Terre although 20 lengths of the pace at the wire in his last came out and did a bullet work. Put it down to an off day in that race. We will get the price we want, lets see if we get the trip.
H.W.
The Broncobuster snuck out of Delta Downs with his pockets full on Thursday and is back in the Desert to give Turf Paradise another go for a manic Monday!
All selections for Turf Paradise-
Best Bet- Race 9 # 6 Miller Peak, M/L 3-1. We may have to wait until the last race of the day to cash in on the best bet of the day! Sandi Gann drops this horse from open maiden 10 claimers to a State restricted maiden 5K claimer. Showed brief speed last out before fading. The drop into easier company should be all that it takes to get this guys picture taken today! A 6F work coming in should keep him sharp enough!
Next Bet Bet – Race 6 – #2 Splendid Breeze, M/L 5-1. This horse must of had some problems early on in life as she surfaced as a first time starter last month as a 5 yr. old mare. She surprised us with a win first out at a decent price and it was not surprising she bounced a bit second out, as the favorite. Still wasn’t a bad effort hanging on for the place award, so this gal may have some heart! Comes right back in the same class and get first time lasix. Doesn’t hurt that the trainer is also winning at a 25% clip.
Value Play- Race 1 – #3 Minstrel Boy, M/L 6-1. One of those races where we’re going to hope the favorite is a bit vulnerable. That favorite is taking a huge drop after fading the last 2. It’s a pattern that fits most of the horses in this field. The value play today is a first time starter who has been working steady including 2 from the gate getting ready for this debut. May find the one to beat a bit salty, but if that one falters, this guy may reel him in! Wager across the board an d hope the fish are biting!
PICKS DU JOUR
BONJOUR MONSIEUR CONTOIS serving up some sunday picks that will make you come back for seconds.
BEST BET HAWTHORNE Race 4 #5 EATHON SEA (ML 3/1) This gelding has improved every start since getting lasix 4 outs ago.He now has hit the board in his last 3 ,but with back to back second place finishes to the favorite makes him look even better .Today there is a lack of early pace so i think he’ll get a excellent trip with his tactical speed.
NEXT BEST BET WOODBINE Race 9 #7 MARINA BALLERINA (ML 12/1) She’s a speedy one making the lead in 5 of last 6 starts.In her last start going 6f she was unhurried dueling 3 wide but stayed on nicely to only be beaten by 2 3/4 lengths finishing fourth.At this 7f distance her record is good 5 starts 1-3-0. Since her last out blazed in morning workout in 47.3 b.Ithink that puts her on the engine for a big wire to wire effort.
VALUE BET TURF PARADISE Race 4 #6 SHREWD PROSPECT (ML 10/1) It’s hard to bet against a trainer with a 40% win clip. Mike Chambers sends out this 2yo making his second lifetime start.In his first out was well respected at 2/1 but disappointed for 12.5k claimer at Emerald Downs after being bumped at the start.Since then has been working well in morning while getting blinkers on and taking the drop to 5k.I’ll take the chance that this one will improve drastically.
BONNE CHANCE and come on back for another helping.
