Happy New Year everyone! Unfortunately, Fair Grounds ran into some bad luck over the holidays – a horse was diagnosed with the equine herpesvirus last week which resulted in a shipping ban. 77 horses were scratched on Sunday and Monday! The ban has been lifted now, so hopefully the meet will get back to business as usual. But I think I’ll ring in the new year at Aqueduct in old New York to try to change my luck a little. Here’s to a prosperous (and lucky) 2009!

Your BEST BET is SMOKIN GLADIATOR in RACE 4 (4-1 ML). Debut was nothing special, but he takes a big drop today and gets blinkers. Should be ready to do battle.

Your NEXT BEST BET is HIGH FIVES in RACE 5 (6-1 ML). Barn is 24% with new stock and bullet drill indicates he may be back to form.

Your VALUE BET is HANDSOME REWARD in RACE 9 (10-1 ML). He won twice on the inner track here and the drop after the layoff should do him good. The distance is a bit of a concern, but he did OK here at two turns last spring. Recent works indicate he’s ready for this and may pay handsomely.

Picks for 12-31-08
BEST BET: Santa Anita Race 6, # 2 KYNISKA (ML 3/1). Group placed filly in Ireland looked good winning her stateside debut. Has trained well since and will appreciate the extra half furlong.

NEXT BEST: Santa Anita Race 7, # 8 BARONESS THATCHER (ML 4/1). A huge amount of early speed should set this up for a closer such as Baroness Thatcher. Reunited with her original trainer, Patrick Biancone, the filly narrowly failed in the grade one Humana Distaff last May in a similar scenario and has two wins on artificial surfaces.

VALUE BET: Tampa Race 7, # 3 LEADING ON (ML 8/1). Returns off a short rest for underrated trainer James Dodgen. Ran okay against a tough allowance field at Keeneland in his last start and a return ot his best form gives him a shot here.

BEST BET–CALDER RACE 9—# 6 MIKE’S KONG.
Eddie Plesa is trying to win the training title and is dropping this colt from MSWT to claiming for the first time today got get a win. He wants a win–and so do WE. This is an angle to look for here the closing week at Calder while Plesa is chasing the title. This horse has run 2 lights out works at Gulfstream in his last to visits to the track in the a.m.. Eddie doesn’t want to wait till Gulfstream with this horse to cash a ticket, today is the day.
 
 
NEXT BEST—HOLLYWOOD RACE 7—# 8 BARONESS THATCHER.
This 6 1/2 furlong stakes is LOADED with speed. I am looking for the closer and I found her in BARONESS THATCHER. This filly who has been routing showing speed will definitely be coming late today.She will run back to the type of race she ran at Churchill on Derby Day when a flying 2nd to INTANGAROO by a head. The is an overabundance of spped here today and track was playing spped opening day then the bias vanished Monday. Santa Anita is a mystery from one day to the next. IF it’s like Monday The Baroness will get it done today.
 
 
VALUE BET—-TAMPA BAY RACE 7—# 3 LEADING ON.
This gelding had big plans as a 2 yr old as evident in his running in 2 stakes at 2. Came back at 3 and wasn’t the same horse. This year towards the fall he began to come to life again running a lifetime best in Kentucky. Horse comes back off a short freshening and gets Homeister to ride today. The horse that beat him in Kentucky came out of a race won by a really nice horse. If Leading On continues to improve like he did in the fall, we will catch a nice mutual here today.

BRONCOBUSTER’S LAST CALL IN 2008 FROM TURF PARADISE. 
 
Another exciting year is coming to an end and Broncobuster has enjoyed every moment of it and will give his last call of 2008 from Turf Paradise. I would like to wish everyone a Happy New Year and prosperous 2009!  Best of Luck to all….
 
Best Bet -  Race 4 #6 Smoocher, M/L 3-1.  A grand ole son of Kissin Kris with over $ 400,000 in his saddle bags. Will be given every opportunity to add to that total in his last start of 2008. Won as he pleased last out at Golden Gate and overall has enjoyed a successful campaign.  Should close out the year with  his 4th win of the season and 9th overall.  
 
Next Best Bet-  Race 6 #4 Purr for Me, M/L 5-2.  A drop in class last out resulted in a total reserval in form.  Ran a bang up 2nd after being beat 40 lengths the start before.  Is jammed right back in the same class where he is proven himself on more than one occasion and todays start see’s him dropping 5 lbs with the bug gal hopping on board.  Anything close to his last race gets the job done on the drop in weight alone. 
 
Value Bet -  Race 8 #9 Ives, M/L 8-1. Finds himself with the same problem as the rest of the field in the fact that he has yet to win this year. One of them will exit 2008 with a win in this low claimer for nw1y tilt. It’s been a long time between drinks for this guy but, I like the works displayed since arriving from New Mexico including a good work getting ready for this spot and he has won in the past showing 5 wins from 19 starts. Demand double digits and hope he remembers where the winners circle is!
 
Happy New Year and go gettum -  broncobuster

BONJOUR !! This will be my last chance to storm the winners circle and fill your pockets for the final time in 08.
 
BEST BET TURF PARADISE Race 4 #6 SMOOCHER (ML 3/1) Ships over from California where he had a good year hitting 7 for 13 in the top 2.He should really benefit from the torrid pace battle with his late closing style.He also comes out of a key race in which the second and third finishers both won.Lots of backclass on a roll  the one to beat.
 
NEXT BEST BET PHILADELPHIA PARK Race 7 #5 S K R’S SPARTAN (ML 3/1)He comes out of a hot barn hitting at 40%.In his last 2 dirt races he led every step only to fade late finishing second and third.In those races both winners and the second finisher all came back to win.His last out on the grass was 8th but only lost by 3.Todays cut back in distance with 2 rocket 1/2 mile works in 46 tells me picture time.
 
VALUE BET MOUTAINEER Race 3 EXACTA BOX  2-(10/1) 3-(20/1) 5-(10/1) Time to shake it up in here where i think the favorites will fold like a house of cards.We have to hope for past glory on a couple but this is the kind of race to swing for the fence.
 
ALL THE BEST IN THE NEW YEAR
 
MONSIEUR CONTOIS

On the road this weekend visiting friends in Knoxville, TN. Didja know that in the 1800s Tennessee was more famous than Kentucky for breeding and racing thoroughbreds? In 1839 there were 10 racetracks in the state! Then in 1906 the TN General Assembly passed a bill that banned racing and that was that. Too bad they haven’t been able to bring it back. But now on to Louisiana, where racing is alive and well. Here are some Fair Grounds picks for ya.
 
Your BEST BET is FLAMINGO KEY in RACE 7 (8-1ML). She disappointed her last race out at Keeneland, but she probably didn’t like the synthetic surface. She should perform better back to the dirt and this trainer is 31% with runners off a layoff. Winning jockey/trainer combo helps her cause.
 
Your NEXT BEST BET is THE MAD ARTIST in RACE 10 (6-1ML). He failed to deliver the last time I picked him as a best bet, but apparently he just didn’t take to turf or synthetics. He’s back to the dirt, drops to his lowest and works indicate he’s ready for this one.
 
Your VALUE BET is CHEERS in RACE 6 (20-1ML). This $330K well-meant-baby failed miserably in her debut, but pedigree suggests she’ll like the grass. Barn is doing well this meet and 15% with 2nd starters. Price will be right and she should have a shot in this wide open field.

BONJOUR and happy holidays to one and all.MONSIEUR CONTOIS back after a virus setback but ready to serve up more winners.
 
BEST BET  TURF PARADISE Race 3 #5 TUG O WAR (ML 7/2)COMES out of a speed filled race in which he easily cleared only to back up to finish 5th.Today he is lone speed and should be able to rate as he did earlier in 08.Expect this speedball to go wire to wire.
 
NEXT BEST BET PHILADELPHIA Race 5 #5 BIG MOTOR (ML 2/1)He has been on his game in his last 4 races with 2 wins a 2 narrow losses by a neck and a nose . Last out made a power move to open a lead only to get nailed at the wire.His stalking style fits well with the pace battle that should emerge.BIG SHOT
 
VALUE BET FAIR GROUNDS Race 7 #5 FLAMINGO KEY (ML 8/1)Was a force at LaD with 2 wins and a second in 3 lifetime outs.In her last start on the poly in KEENELAND ran last against way better than she faces today.Trainer has a 31% win clip off of an extended lay-offs ,goes back to dirt and sharp recent work make her look very interesting.

Picks for 12-27-2008

BEST BET: Fair Grounds Race 9, #4 STORMY WEST (ML 7/2). Won an off-the-turf stake here at the start of the meet and has been facing the likes of Forever Together, Precious Kitten and Rutherienne this year. Looks to have a class edge here.

NEXT BEST: Calder Race 4, #6, AWESOME MOMENT (ML 6/1). Was a touch unlucky when beaten a neck in her lone turf try in August at Arlington. Ran okay after that on the Polytrack but has some turf pedigree and may appreciate the switch back to the grass.

VALUE BET: Fair Grounds Race 10, #11 LADY MERCEDES (ML 12/1). With a lot of speed entered this should set up for a closer such as this filly from the barn of sharp trainer Steve Klesaris. After breaking her maiden from off the pace at Delaware she was carried wide in a small stake race at Monmouth and will look to rebound here at a price.

BEST BET CALDER RACE 5—# 6 GOLDEN DYNASTY.
3 yr old colt is coming off a 1 1/8th mile race at Woodbine for Brian Lynch. Horse has been worikng steadily at Palm Meadows for a month and I have it on good authroity he’s ” ready to go today”.There are no world beaters in here and the last race was a good prep for this one. gets a positive rider switch to Douglas today as well.
 
NEXT BEST TAMPA RACE 5 —# 8 R BROWN SUGAR.
This filly has been meeting much tougher on the turf and comes back to dirt today. Her only win is on a dirt surface. the seasoning against better 2 yr olds she has already got will make the difference today. That and the surface switch will get her a 3 rd win on her resume.
 
VALUE BET FAIR GROUNDS RACE 9—# 2 FINAL REFRAIN(TURF ONLY).
She lost by 1 1/2 to Stormy West on the slop lsat time out. Hopefuly we’ll be on the grass today in the Big Easy and that will make a difference in the outcome today.She has shown good form at several tracks on the turf. A ground saving trip may be all she needs to get it done here.