SATURDAY NIGHT SELECTIONS FROM RETAMA PARK- BRONCOBUSTER
Best Bet – Race 1 #6 Hickory Nut A, M/L 8-5. Been hinting that a win is looming with consectutive 2nd place finishes. Like that he cuts back 1/2 furlong today and he also faces a few in here that he is already beaten which should boost his confidence. Should be graduation day for this guy.
Next Best Bet- Race 5 #4 Cuvee’s Pride, M/L 2-1. Could have easily been my best bet tonight. This one has been chasing tougher company than he faces today including a couple of stake races. There aren’t any of those in here and the final running time of his last would easily run away from these. Anything close to that time will get him into the winners circle.
Value Bet - Race 3 #3 Tates Mandate, M/L 5-1. Interesting and wide open 10 claimer on the lawn which see’s a slew of horses searching for a spot. This races has low level ALW horses in with some claimers who are dropping and horses switching surfaces. He had back to back wins in low starter ALW races and last time raced well enough but the classification was a bit too tough. He cuts back in distance and if he times the move right could jump up here. Not the easiest race to handicap but this one jumped out at me a little as a possible value play in a wide open race.
go gettum – broncobuster
BEST BET—GULFSTREAM RACE 7—# 6 ROCKLAND.
Mike Matz has this guy training smartly up at Palm Meadows with 4 nice works off his grass win at Calder in December. He has won on both turf and dirt in his last 2 starts. He has only lost once and that was to the talented Map of the World in Keeneland. The son of Smarty Jones is unheralded thus far, but with a win in the Holy Bull here today he can catapult into a Derby contender just like that. the red hot Matz/ Lezcano presence makes him a player today.
NEXT BEST–GULFSTREAM RACE 1—# 4 WELL POSITIONED.
Thats what this guy is today, well positioned. Pat Reynolds has him in a restricted allowance race off a 91 beyers going a 1 turn mile last out at Aqueduct. He has a few nice works over the Gulfstream strip prepping for today. Most importantly is his last win by 14 + lengths, but the key was the addition of blinkers in that race which made him a different animal. The Pletcher horses will be overbet(see C.S. SILK A 3/5 that ran 4th Friday in a stakes) and aren’t world beaters. If we get 4/1 here, it Valentines gifts for everyone.
VALUE BET—GULFSTREAM RACE 9—# 4 BULLSBAY.
I do not shy away from stakes, it is there we find very vulnerable favorites and great overlays. Here is another. ALBERTUS MAXIMUS is a very nice horse, ON WIRES AND TIRES. EINSTEIN is another fine runner, but 2/3’s of his wins are on turf and here his post isn’t the best spot.BULLSBAY had a fine tightener in The Hals Hope over the course and is coming in prior to that with 2 2 turn wins at Churchill. And check Fridays winners. Churchill runners are getting their pictures taken a lot. Here’s another and at a price.
LOOK FOR NICANOR IN THE 8TH AT GP. IF HE RUNS BIG(AND HIS CONNECTIONS ARE HINTING HE WILL)HE WILL BE ON THE DERBY TRAIL JUST LIKE HIS LATE BIG BROTHER—BARBARO.
Picks for 1-31-09.
BEST BET: Gulfstream Race 5, # 2 NEXT ADVENTURE (ML 6/1). Has been freshened by hot trainer since an unsuccessful try sprinting on the turf at Churchill in his first start off the claim. Should appreciate the switch back to traditional dirt and has been training well.
NEXT BEST: Gulfstream Race 1, # 4 WELL POSITIONED (ML 5/2). Was hugely impressive in breaking his maiden at Aqueduct in November by over 14 lengths. While admittedly he did get to control a fairly easy pace that day, a duplication of that effort should put him in the winner’s circle.
VALUE BET: Gulstream Race 9, # 5 A. P. ARROW (ML 10/1). Twelve months ago this colt ran second in this race as the second favorite with those behind him including this year’s morning line favorite, Einstein. After a disappointing remainder of the year he now shows up in the care of Ken McPeek who sees fit to start the season here while adding blinkers and main rider Desormeaux. will be the pilot.
General Bugle
Wow, it’s the last day of the first month of the new year. How many resolutions have you broken so far? Well, the holiday pounds are not coming off as quickly as I had hoped and my promise to pick only winners this year was more than a little unrealistic. I’m feeling like the “2nd Place Kid” these days. Let’s see if we can buck that trend with these Saturday Retama picks.
Your BEST BET is 7 MONA QUITA in RACE 5 (7-2 ML). This improving filly seems to have found her niche in these turf routes. Coming off a close second in her last and should be ready for the win this time out. Strong competition from brother Cash’s entry, but Steve Asmussen should come out on top.
Your NEXT BEST BET is 1 GLASS MACHINE in RACE 3 (10-1 ML). He did really well in turf sprints last year and looks ready to head back to the grass after a couple of lackluster runs on the dirt. The inside post is a bit of a concern, but he’s certainly capable and recent works indicate he might be back to form.
Your VALUE BET is 1 SUGGESTION LISA in RACE 8 (15-1 ML). This $122K earner seems to prefer turf or synthetic surfaces, but she did show some moments of brilliance on the dirt last summer. This switch to a dirt sprint might be just the wake up call she needs.
Lady Luck
BRONCOBUSTER’S FRIDAY’S SELECTION FROM RETAMA PARK.
Best Bet- Race 3 #6 T C Time, M/L 2-1. By looking at the pedigree, I beleive this was the spot they were pointing to all along. A debut on the main track was a good experience and will be used as a nice springboard for this spot. Secures top pilot for his initial turf try and should be the one!
Next Best Bet- Race 8 #7 Ranger Danger, M/L 4-1. Not often i lke going with a maiden breaker first out in the N2L ALW class. The MSW performance was eye catching and anything close to repeat would have a good shot at doubling up. Always nice to start out a career 2 for 2 and this some seems poised to do that and lands the top jock which adds to the appeal.
Value Bet- Race 10 #11 Captain Jess, M/L 12-1. No match for a well meant winner last out and now spirals to the bottom of the tank in search of a win which has been eluding him in higher and open claiming classes. The drop to N1Y should get this one motivated and put him in a competitive spot. His 2008 campaign wasn’t all bad and he managed to finish in the top three 50% of the time. That was enough to pay his way and anywhere close to this morning line would be worth a long look.
go gettum - broncobuster.
Best Bet: Gulfstream Park Race 8 #3 CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN (3-1) has a ton of natural speed and should get the jump on his main foes in here under Leparoux. The gelding has been working lights out in preparation of this and might return $9!
Second Best Bet: Gulfstream Park Race 5 #2 ARMONK (10-1) appears to be controlling speed in this race and has a decent chance at wiring this bunch for the high-percentage Trombetta. We love Coa in this spot.
Value Play: Gulfstream Park Race 7 #5 KICKAPOO (6-1). We find it really interesting that Pletcher would enter this one along with his more hyped colt drawn directly outside of him. If one of the pair scratches, then we’d surely zone in on the one that reamins. For the gimmick players, a 4-5-6 trifecta box seems like an intelligent play.
El Secreto
BEST BET—GULFSTREAM PARK–RACE 6–# 5 FROLICS DREAM.
This guy is a troubled start from being undefeated lifetime for Marty Wolfson. He was in the Old Hat last out and ran 3rd in a 3 horse photo after getting the worst of it in the race of all 3. Wolfson’s go to guy , Junior Bridgemohan, is aboard again today and Marty is sure this guy an run bringing him back in today’s Grade II event. Has speed and just needs to brak well to get Black Type as a 3 yr old.
NEXT BEST—GULFSTREAM PARK–RACE 5–#1 CORRENTINA(TURF ONLY).
OK, since Saturday Matz has won with a 22-1, 18-1 and 17-1 shots. All with Lezcano aboard. I have been on all of them and I’m along for the ride again today. Since invading So. Florida in December, Matz is a man possessed. He crushed them at Calder, got off tad slow at Gulfstream, but is a blazing inferno now. Jump on the bus and join the party.
VALUE PLAY–GULFSTREAM PARK–RACE 2–# 2 MURCH(TURF ONLY).
This guy is an underrated turfer, was i The Helen Pitts barn and switched to Mark Henning last summer. He has been running against top level claimers and stakes caliber horses forever. Henning has him cutting glass up at Palm Meadows with a series of top notch works. Will be a ice price and gets a top jock in Desormeaux to ride after having some bottom dwellers riding him for his last 4. Look for him last and closing stoutly.
Oh, springtime, where are you? Please come soon. I might have to drop kick that groundhog if he sees his shadow this year. Temps here are in the 20s, which caused all the ice and snow we’ve been pelted with to freeze again. Now I have been known to enjoy a little ice skating on occasion, but not in my car! Slid right out of my neighborhood this morning. Bah. Enough of that rant, here are some toasty Retama picks for Friday.
Your BEST BET is 7 RANGER DANGER in RACE 8 (4-1 ML). Broke his maiden first time out with a nice run here. Winning barn is 20% with sophomores. Stepping up a little but should be up to the challenge based on recent works and smokin’ hot connections.
Your NEXT BEST BET is 2 MOONLIGHT STOCK in RACE 6 (6-1 ML). Nice little string of turf performances against better last fall. Placed on the dirt in his last for Tejera and should like the return to the grass.
Your VALUE BET is 8 STEPHENTOUCHEDGOLD in RACE 3 (12-1 ML). Posted the best turf Beyer in the field against much tougher in December. He should like the return to the lawn and recent works are competitive with these. Solid jockey/trainer combo.
Lady Luck
Picks for Friday Jan 30th.
BEST BET: Gulfstream Race 5: # 8, ABSOLUTELY CINDY (ML 5/2). Stakes winning filly on the Polytrack has put up some good performances on the turf, especially when third in the Tropical Park Oaks and fourth in the Mrs. Revere, when trained by capable owner Keith Kinmon. Has been sent to top grass trainer Christophe Clement and should prove best in a competitive event.
NEXT BEST: Gulfstream Race 8: # 4, HELLO BROADWAY (ML 5/2). Barclay Tagg’s two-year-olds usuall improve at three and this half brother to Nobiz Like Showbiz has been working up a storm for his 09 debut. Loses regular rider Coa but Prado should do nicely and he gets a weight break from most rivals.
VALUE BET: Gulfstream Race 7. # 1, FITZASLEW (ML 12/1). McPeek’s barn is loaded with talented three-year-olds and this one looked good breaking his maiden in what turned out to be a key race. Subsequently flopped when unplaced as the favorite in the Cradle on the turf at River Downs but gets a welcome return to sprinting on the dirt here and stable’s main rider Desormeaux takes the mount.
General Bugle
BRONCOBUSTER HOPING FOR ROLE REVERSAL FOR THURSDAY AT RETAMA?
Anyone following my selections will see i finished the week out strong at Retama last week with 4 winners and a 1 second from just 6 selections. That finish didn’t go un-tarnished however, as my Thursday selections last week were well off the mark. I am hoping to get off to a better start this week and lord knows I need a few wins this week to keep me from falling off the map. I am referring to the contest and we are down to our final month. This weekend marks moving week, similar to the 3rd round in golf tourney! time to make a move!
Best Best - Race 1 #7 Filsd Croixmoire A, M/L 7-2. My best bet this day happens to be an Arabian bred who appears to have a found a nice spot. After a MSW score this one was double jumped to ALW for N3L which compromised his chances somewhat. Still was a fine effort to hit the board and now gets in with his own kind in a N2L. Also shows a G3 stake on his card which was over his head, but there won’t be any of those in here! Should wire these.
Next Best Bet - Race 5 #2 Sorenson’s Song, M/L 4-1. Been on the shelf since June when well beaten in a stake race. Comes in fresh off the layoff and finds a cozy spot in a low level ALW race for N2L. Should provide some value though as the race appears wide open and must contend with a couple of horses from Delta who will take lots of support! Given the layoff make sure the price is right and might be worth laying off if she is over bet or not bet at all so watch the tote board for the clues. A bullet work last week says all systems go but i wouldn’t take a short price on her.
Next Best Bet- Race 7 # 4 Gulf Squall, M/L 9-2. This one found open MSW a bit salty last time but it was her initial bow and she did make her presence felt briefly before fading. Had to be a learning experience for her and now she ducks into a MSW for restricted state breds which should make the going a little eaiser. She also stretches out an extra furlong which should help her relax a bit. If she isn’t overcooked early, she should be heard from here!
Value Bet- Race 6 #4 Alleged Hug, M/L 12-1. This old guy seems sharp at the moment with on the board finishes in his last 3 starts against low level claimers. Connections going to take advantage of the current form and jump this guy up about 3 levels and make a switch to the Turf. That rise in class is compensated a bit with the switch in surface and i like the fact that he is 3 for 3 in the money on the Retama lawn including 2 scores! Don’t overlook this one as he has every chance in here to jump up at value price!
go gettum – broncobuster
