Picks for 2-28-09
BEST BET: Gulfstream Race 9, # 9 CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN (ML 5/1). Showed needed maturity when rating before winning the Hutcheson last month. Should get a good trip behind several with speed and can prove best in competitive race.
NEXT BEST: Gulfstream Race 8, # 11 BUDDY’S HUMOR (ML 12/1). Will have to overcome wide post but has enough early speed to secure a spot behind probable pace setter drawn just to his inside. Has been rested since disappointing in the Ft. Lauderdale but has worked well since.
VALUE BET: Gulfstream Race 3, # 4 CHEROKEE TRIANGLE (ML 15/1). With little other speed entered Leparoux may go for the lead and not look back.
The DRF/NTRA NHC Tour is in full swing with the online Fountain of Youth Tournament today. This lady is feeling lucky, so I’ll see you on the leaderboards as R2D Lady Luck. There’s a wealth of talented horseflesh to choose from and I still have lots of studying to do, but here are a few Gulfstream goodies for your consideration. Good Luck!
Your BEST BET is 9 CAPT CANDYMAN CAN (5-1 ML) in RACE 9, The Fountain of Youth. Impressive win against some of these in the Hutcheson last month. Probably won’t get 5/1, but 7/2 would still be a bargain for this guy. Sharp Leparoux stays with him. Another horse to keep an eye on in this race is Beethoven – I don’t have quite enough faith to use him as my best bet, but keep him in mind for the exotics or if you need a longer shot for the tournament.
Your NEXT BEST BET is 4 CELESTIAL COMET in RACE 6 (6-1). He came off the shelf in Jan with a 2nd place finish and a very nice Beyer. Waffled a little in his last against tougher, but should like today’s company. Top turf rider Desormeaux stays in the irons.
Your VALUE BET is 5 FAIR WEATHER STAN in RACE 3 (20-1 ML). Stan’s last race here was a little disappointing, but the races prior to that were certainly good enough for him to be competitive today. He’s won twice on the Gulfstream grass and John V. takes the call. He has a shot at a good price.
Lady Luck
Last Saturday in febuary for me its the start of the Triple Crown bid with the Fountain of Youth Stakes going off in Florida. Changing the distance to this race has added to the speculation of the contenders I’am sure more questions than answers will be the order of the day when they hit the wire.
If your playing the NTRA/DRF Handicapping Comp. today the online version for tour members only. Keep an eye on the leaderboard for the Magnificent Seven racing2day tipsters who will be out in full force good luck H.W.
Best Bet ….. Race 5 ….. # 5 Opportunity Lost
Tough race the 2 horse has been running in some lofty company her and the Fairgrounds. The trainer has still to get to grips with this meet zilch so far. Like the 5 at Steady Eddie come grinder. Will prevail at somewhat of a price.
Next Best ….. Race 6 ….. # 1 Sing My A.P.C.’s
Anyone no what the name means. Beaten Fav last time out the drop in distance will suit his style. They will all be coming at him around that bend but looks a hanger on today.
Value Bet ….. Race 1 ….. # 5 Or Else # 7 Texas Bad Boy.
Lets get the evening off to a good start, going for real value with a boxed exacta on these two nothing can split them but they have done enough to seperate themselves from the rest. 4 and 5 year old maidens tough tough crowd. Nothing I cant handle though. H.W.
BEST BET—TAMPA BAY –RACE 8-# 3 AMAZING.
Last time out this filly beat 1/2 the field of 12 in the Sunshine Millions Distaff at Santa Anita for 500k on the fake track. Back to earth today and back to dirt. This gal has a huge asset here today with here speed and can go gate to wire with the big drop back to her peers. No LEAH’S SECRETS in here today, gets ot done on the front today.
NEXT BEST—GULFSTREAM PARK–RACE 7–# 6 MOTOVATO.
Comes off the bench today for Marty Wolfson off a 10 month layoff. No problem , he’s been working sharply at Calder for the comeback. His last out was a 111 beyer, and Wolfson is good off the bench. If he’s sharp it’s over at the start. I’m betting he’s sharp.
VALUE BET—GULFSTREAM PARK–RACE 8–# 10 BUJAGLI.
Gets the ACID TEST today, but I will never argue the placement of any Marty Wolfson horse. Another speed horse in here and that is huge in this stakes today. He may be the lone speed and if he outbreaks the 11 it’s curtains for this field. And with a M.L. of 20-1 THATS VALUE.So bet.
Picks for 2-27-09
BEST BET: Fair Grounds Race 8, # 8 PICKITUP (ML 8/1). With little early speed in here could inherit an easy lead. Takes a major class drop and barn is in good form.
NEXT BEST: Gulfstream Race 4: # 4 MY SWEET NATALIE (ML 5/2). Has not run since last September but trainer Ward is good off layoffs and this filly has been working well. Looks like the speed of the speed and may wire these.
VALUE BET: Gulfstream Race 9: # 8 LAMBEAU LEAP (ML 12/1). Well bred colt had a troubled debut when well-bet. Trainer Angel Penna does well with second time starters, Velasquez retains the mount and had a sharp work a few days ago.
General Bugle
BEST BET—SANTA ANITA RACE 8—# 7 MILLION SELLER.
Graham Motion take the hood off this lass today and with good reason. She ran better without it than with it. Bejerano stays aboard this AP INDY offspring. She is out of a SUNDAY SILENCE mare, I love any lines with SUNDAY SILENCE on turf/dirt/or broken glass. Sunday was one of the best sires around. Unfortunately he went to Japan and thats where most of his offspring are. Take this one home today.
NEXT BEST–TAMPA BAY–RACE 9 # 4 MY KIM (TURF ONLY).
Love the way she came back off her 1st grass try with a win. Ran against a good turf sprinter in that debut and won nicely at Calder going 5f. Servis is over 50% in wins at the meet. gets top rider at meet…cha-ching.
VALUE BET—TAMPA BAY–RACE 8–# 7 TRIPPI DIPPI DOT.
Goes from 25k starter allowances o 50k claimer. In top form and has never been worse than 2nd at the track.All her lifetime wins have been at Tampa. Strike while the iron is hot. Take a few tix on her today.
Back Stretch Al
Today I think I’ll stick with Delta Downs and have another bowl of gumbo. Kentucky has warmed up some, but the weather in the deep south is much more inviting. Chance of thunderstorms today, but with a delicious high of 75 degrees. Here are some spicy Friday picks.
Your BEST BET is 3 BIDE in RACE 6 (7-2 ML). Nice win here in an allowance race last time out. He likes this track and posted a bullet on Feb 19. Doesn’t mind the mud if there’s rain today. Smoking hot connections.
Your NEXT BEST BET is 5 ADMIRAL’S MOUNTAIN in RACE 9 (8-1 ML). This guy has been improving with each race and had a nice win in the slop here in his last. He likes this track (in the money 3 out of 4 starts) and Eads stays with him.
Your VALUE BET is 3 WALINDASSTORM in RACE 11 (12-1 ML). This is one of those races where upsets happen and this filly has a shot. She improved quite a bit in her second race and no reason to believe she won’t get better today. This is her first route, but her pedigree suggests she’ll like it and she does have some speed based on a bullet workout last month.
Lady Luck
SOME FRIDAY NIGHT PICKS FROM RETAMA PARK- BRONCOBUSTER
In looking at Friday’s card i came across something bizzare that i have never seen before, so my blog actually is about a horse that is not going to be a top 3 selection of mine tonight. The 4th race is a MSW tilt and a horse Lakeway West has been enlisted as the 2-1 choice despite showing a 0 beyer last start, a 9th place finish beaten 22 lengths, and who went off at 9-1. In addition to all of that she was carried 9 wide into the FIRST turn last out! and the connections are 4%. True enough the race itself today is not a steller bunch to say the least, but i can honestly say ive never seen a horse go 9 wide in the opening turn end up with a 0 beyer and then be enlisted as a 2-1 choice next out in the same class. Makes one wonder who calculates these morning lines and how they are determined? Be interesting to see where this one finishes, but i’ll pass this time. Here are some others to consider..
BEST BET- RACE 6 #1 CHARLES EDWIN, M/L 3-1 Starter Alw on the turf and i’ve always been a proponent of horses for courses, especially on the lawn. This one fits that strategy to a tee. This guy is a perfect 5 for 5 on the Retama lawn and 11/14 in the money overall at todays distance. Also shows the best beyer last out and the hottest jock on the track sticks with him. Hard to go against all of that especially the 100% win production on the course. Hmmmm so we’ll go to the well one more time…
NEXT BEST BET- RACE 3 #5 ACCOUNTABLE, M/L 5-1 Makes his 3rd start at Retama after shipping down from Hawthorne. In both of his starts here he has been seen running on late but in both of those efforts has had too far to come. Takes a slight drop in hopes of putting him over the top. Key to the race will be staying a bit closer and his 3rd start at Retama is the lucky charm that could give this guy the keys to the kingdom.
VALUE BET- RACE 1 #9 STORMIN MOON, M/L 12-1. Resurfaced at Retama last month after being on the shelf for 14 months. Has made 3 starts already on the comeback trail. Those starts were all on the turf and now switches to the main track. This is her 1st start on the main track since late 2007, but it is a surface she has shown some consistency on beyer wise. Her conditioning and soundness do not appear to be an issue, given this is her 4th start in 5 weeks.. Could be a tremendous value play at a juicy price!
go gettum- broncobuster
Now that Mardi Gras is over, I think I’ll bid New Orleans farewell for now and move on to another track. I never tire of the southern hospitality though, so I think I’ll stay in Louisiana and head west to some unexplored territory – Delta Downs in Vinton. I’ve never handicapped this track, but I’m always up for trying new things. These Thursday picks look ready to rock n’ roll.
Your BEST BET is 7 BIG NASTY in RACE 4 (7-5 ML). Consistent colt likes this track and is taking a big drop. Beyers are better than most in this field. Solid connections.
Your NEXT BEST BET is 4 BAD S. DEVIL in RACE 1 (5-1 ML). Frontrunning gelding finished 3rd in his last here, but should improve in this third outing for this trainer. He likes this distance and is certainly capable on a good day. Winning jockey/trainer combo and barn is 25% with claiming races.
Your VALUE BET is 4 ABOVE THE FOLD in RACE 10 (10-1 ML). This colt changed up his running style and made a big move forward with a nice win here last month. He’s stepping up today, but should be able to handle it. Simington stays with him and trainer has been doing well here.
Lady Lucky
BRONCOBUSTER LOOKS FOR SOME VALUE FOR CLOSING WEEKEND AT RETAMA.
It’s closing weekend at Retama and for those fortunate to have a shot in the handicapping challenge, finding some value may be the difference between getting some cash or getting ribbed! Bronco has felt what that is like so no 1-5 shots today! May the luck be with all of you.
Best Bet- Race 6 #8 Two Jays Hugger, M/L 3-1. Did manage to win at this very level last fall and since has been hinting a couple of classes higher, but just hasn’t made it to the winners circle. Those efforts were productive enough for me to feel the slight drop today is all that is needed to make the difference.
Next Best Bet- Race 3 #8 Uncle Rose, M/L 12-1. Cash Assmusen horse who sprials down to the bottom of the barrel after a failed attempt at Oaklawn. Was last seen at Retama racing in a 75K stake back in December, so todays race in for just a tag of $ 3,500 is a fire sale to say the least. Recent form is about as bad as it gets, but the beyers are still good enough to go with these.
Value Bet- Race 4 # 10 Faith in Van, M/L 10-1. Been at Retama since last fall with mixed results both on and off the turf. Searching more times than not. This one is 2 for 3 on lawn and and gets that surface again today with a slight drop from Optional claiming to straight claimers. The last time she faced straight claimers she finished as a runner up, so we’ll give this one a look and hope the odds stay at a nice value price!
go gettum - broncobuster.
