The Whisperer is back after taking an enforced absence. No worries though he is fresh, re -energised although the ears are sore having been firmly planted to the ground listening for any information around the tracks.
This is the time of year when particular trainers come into thier own, the key is knowing which trainers and which tracks, leave that to the whisperer.
Meadowlands.
BEST BET ….. RACE 6 ….. # 1 AMBLING ROSE.
This selection is purely a trainer angle. Peter Kazamias has a 42% strike rate at the meet, claimed this mare out of her last race where she ran second in fact has registered to own her. A quick return on investment should be on the cards. The 4 horse MARY’S SONG could go close excellent young trainer Chad Brown already a Breeders Cup winner brings this 3yo filly over from Belmont but can only claim a pound weight for age, the mares experience and the top handler makes this a sound investment.
NEXT BEST ….. RACE 7 …..# 2 BEACON HILL ROAD.
This is the race of the day some horses here who were in the triple crown mix at the start of the year. Here we are in winter fighting for 50k winter feed.
Keeping with the trainer angle Mr Servis has a great 33% strike rate. BEE CEE CEE has a claim watched both of these down south at the start of the year the latter is a awkward ride…. J Bravo could get the best of his mount and go close.
VALUE BET ….. RACE 8 …..# 5 QUICK PASS.
5K claimers to finish the card off this gelding broke his maiden last time out and comes in for confident tilt at a tag. Bigger Beyers in the race but top form trainer and a unexposed horse should be a nice price WPS.
H.W.
Picks for Saturday November 28th.
Churchill Downs.
Best Bet: Race 5: # 2 FLATTER THAN ME. Ran a good race to be second here last time off a layoff and that should set him up for the win here.
Next best: Race 4: # 4 BIALY. Offspring of sire Distorted Humor win 17% of their debut and this filly’s bullet work on November 14th signals her readiness.
Value bet: Race 7: # 8 FLY DOWN. Trainer Zito is good with second time starters and blinkers re added. Should appreciate the distance.
General Bugle
BEST BET—AQUEDUCT–RACE 9—# 1 PYRO.
OK, PYRO hate the polytrack, it is definitely confirmed now. This performance in the BC was dismal and he put forth no effort. Which makes him huge today. I believE in the “BC BOUNCE”. We see it every year when a BC entrant runs big in the BC they run poorly in a quick turnaround afterwards. PYRO is definitely a 1 turn dirt horse, he gets all that he likes today–dirt and 1 turn. He will be flying late and win the Cigar Mile. Ans just for good measure you get VINEYARD HAVEN tossed into you bet for free, the other part of the entry.
NEXT BEST—HOLLYWOOD PARK—RACE 8—# 5 RUTHERIENNE.
Every year Clement invades So. cal for the Turf Festival and does well. In this race VENTURA will be a huge favorite, she will suffer “the BC BOUNCE”. RUTHERIENNE will get a great trip at a distance she relishes. Alan Garcia does NOT come west for the mount, ladies and gentlemen, that is a GOOD THING. I LOVE the switch to Rosario here. Gets a good trip and a better rider today. And an overlay thanks to Ventura.
VALUE BET—-MEADOWLANDS—RACE 4—# # 7 CALL ME PERFECT.
Makes the ” TURF TO DIRT” move here against a bunch of bad NJ Breds. Horse has shown speed on the weeds and has never been on a fast surface. Breaks alertly and wires this field and some good odds. Just missed a few back at 100 to 1. May be half of that today and that will buy a lot of Christmas presents.
Bonjour! Saturday at Hawthorne…
Best Bet: Hawthorne Race 6 WIN #4 Candy Van (7/2 ML). 13 horses are
scheduled to head to post in this 6 furlong maiden contest and Candy
Van looks he will lead the pack. This 2YO Illinois-bred colt, a
grandson of Storm Cat, has solid speed, should perform well at the
distance of today’s race, and finished second against comparable
competition last time out. I expect to see Candy Van in the winner’s
circle.
Next Best: Hawthorne Race 1 WIN #4 Executive Coach (3/1 ML). This 3YO
Illinois-bred gelding should have what it takes to win this 6 furlong
claimer. He will certainly face some competition in here, especially
from #3 Tough Jodi (7/2 ML) on his inside. Let’s hope he gets a
favorable trip and crosses the wire first.
Value Bet: Hawthorne Race 3 EXACTA BOX #5 Goaltogoal (7/2 ML) with #4
My Friend Nev (4/1 ML). This 6 ½ furlong allowance race looks like a
good fit for these two. Keep an eye on the exacta pool and let’s try
to make some money!
Bonne Chance! Monsieur Chanceux
Jersey Joe selections for Saturday, November 28th.
11/28
Dover Downs
Best Bet
Race 8
#1 Model Legs
Teague filly won for fun last out. There’s no one in her league here. Clearly and unequivocally, the most probable winner on tonight’s card.
Next Best Bet
Race 12
#5 Fox Ridge Connor
Huge mile in slop last time and better trip pending tonight. Raced well here this spring.
Value Bet
Race 6
#4 Lifeiscape
Classy 7yo goes to potent barn and finds a suspect field. Wake up call at a price.
Regards,
Jersey Joe, Mile Pro
Churchill Downs
Saturday
With a few days off to recharge the batteries, el Secreto will hope to take down the juveniles in Kentucky. Good luck!
Best Bet: Race 6 #5 KERA’S KITTEN (4-1) crushed stakes foes last out and could control this race from the opening bell for Maker.
Next Best: Race 2 #4 AUTUMN EYES (8-1) loses her jockey but still looks like a major player from off the pace for Kenneally.
Value Play: Race 3: Exacta box with #1 PICK AND PRAY (5-2), #3 SPEIGHTFUL LADY (6-1), #6 KATY NOW (3-1)
el Secreto
SATURDAY PICKS & TWO STAKES PREVIEWED AT HOLLYWOOD- BRONCOBUSTER
Two Graded stakes races are on tap at Hollywood Park on Saturday with the Grade I. Matriarch and the Grade III. Generous. Both features include Breeder’s Cup runner-ups in Ventura and Bridgetown. Ventura will look to win in what is the final race of her stunning career when she faces 6 others going a mile on the Hollywood Turf course. A victory will the fitting end and a great tribute to the late Bobby Frankel, who was her tutor for an illustrious career that has garnered $ 2.4 million dollars for the Juddmonte Farms. Bobby Frankel passed away November 16th and even though she will race her final bow under Frankel’s long time assistant, Humberto Ascanio, everyone knows this is was Bobby’s horse. Even Humberto has gone on record to say that this was Frankel’s finest piece of work and all the credit with her success goes to Frankel. That will include her final start today! The undercard may very well provide even more of a heavy favorite in Bridgetown, who will race in the Grade III. Generous. Bridgetown exits a runner up finish the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf against a very tough Pounce and now faces a field of horses who mostly have done nothing more than break their maidens. On paper it certainly appears that Bridgetown towers over the field in this Grade III. event.
HOLLYWOOD PICKS-
Best Bet- Race 5 THE GENEROUS STAKES. #1 Bridgetown, M/L 6-5. WIN WAGER. Grade III event provides a step below what this one faced last out in the Breeder’s Cup and the net result in that tougher event was a runner up finish. Logical selection as this one faces a group of horses have yet to do anything other than break their maidens. A significant switch to Gomez in the irons cements the deal. Short price on this one, but a winner is a winner. Include this guy in all gimicks, including pick pools.
Next Best- Race 8 THE MATRIACH STAKES. #4 Ventura, M/L 7-5. WIN WAGER. Will only be fitting that this CLASS mare wins her final start and what a tribute it will be her late trainer. Honored to watch, wager and appreciate the game that this class act brings to the track. Rarely shows up with anything but her “A” game and even though the price will be short, it will be sweet to see this lass exit her final scene the champion that she is. As for the race itself, she faces a group of very nice horses, but this one holds the trump card going a mile on the weeds. Her win going the same distance in the Woodbine mile 2 back says it all and that win was against the boys no less. Discard her last runner up finish in the Breeder’s as a slow pace ruined her chances that day, but she still came on gang busters and lost to a decent horse who had the jump on her. Not expecting the same pace scenario today and meeting her in the winner’s circle is a last chance to see this one before she rides out in the sunset.
Value Bet- Race 7 #10 Spring Tale, M/L 12-1. WIN PLACE SHOW. Wide open affair going just 6 furlongs on the weeds. Lots of value potential with a full field going to the gate and mutliple horses who look like they will take support. Like that fact that the connections on this filly thought enough of her to try her in stake events over seas including a Graded stakes and another one going for almost 300K. This ALW tilt for N1X is a far cry from some of the races she shows on paper and she appears to love todays distance with 3 of 4 in the frame. Across the board play gives us a shot at a decent return in wide open race such as this.
go gettum- broncobuster
Hope you got a piece of my value and best bets yesterday. Value bet paid a nice $14.00 for the win and $4.20 for place. Next Best might have done better in his race if the pacesetting favorite hadn’t run off the course! I think that got everyone a little discombobulated. Well, two scores out of three ain’t bad, but let’s go for the whole enchilada and shoot for 3 winners with these Saturday Hawthorne picks.
Your BEST BET is 1 WILL’S HONEY in RACE 1 (5/1 ML). Gelding has been off for a while, but he sure looks ready for a comeback based on recent works. Won here at this distance with Thornton on board against much tougher last March. He loves Hawthorne – in the money 5 of 6 starts.
Your NEXT BEST BET is 9 KNOB CREEK in RACE 5 (6/1 ML). This guy scored here in his last with a nice late run and was claimed. Switches to a high percentage trainer who is doing very well this meet- and wins 15% off the claim. Faces some tough competition today, but capable of getting the job done with his closing style.
Your VALUE BET is WIN/PLACE on 3 STRUT N’ STROLL in RACE 2 (15/1 ML). Lightly raced gelding finished a respectable 3rd in his turf debut at Arlington. Did not fair so well in his last at a route in the slop. Should like the return to a grass sprint. Nice drill here on Nov 7 and the presence of Perez is encouraging.
Lady Luck
FRIDAY PICKS FROM HOLLYWOOD AND PREVIEW OF THE CITATION- BRONCOBUSTER
Friday’s card at Hollywood comes up very competitive and their feature race on the card, the Grade I. citation comes up wide open. So much so, that broncobuster will only watch this stakes event that goes 8.5 furlongs on the turf course. There are 10 scheduled to go post, including Cowboy Cal who is scheduled to make his final appearance before retiring. Cowboy Cal is coming off a disappointing run in the Breeders Cup mile and will look to make amends in what looks like his final start. R2D would like to wish the connections of Cowboy Cal the best of luck, as he makes his final gate appearance.
Here are some of the horses that jumped out at me for your consideration. Good Luck and Good Betting!
Best Bet- Race 3 #2 Fair Chase, WIN WAGER. Has been hinting that a date with the track photographer is looming. Has been in the frame in both starts to date and should take a lot of support in this his 3rd start. The beyers are also moving in the right direction and it appears all systems go and 3rd start is the charm for this daughter of Tale of the Cat. Jockey switch to Berajano adds to the appeal. Graduation Day!
Next Best- Race 4 #1 The Program, WIN WAGER. Faces winners for the first time after breaking his maiden last out in a MSW. Winning first out against winners isnt easy but this one looks poised to double up off the maiden score. Like the progressive stretch out in distance and beyers for this $ 310,000 son of Harlen’s Holiday. Trainer Bob Baffert also knows a little something about getting horses of this calibre to the winners circle and this one gets rail control going 8.5F which should put him in the right spot.
Value Bet- Race 5 #12 Lisianski, WIN PLACE SHOW. 3 yr old Bertrando filly debuted back in the spring in a MSW and took some noted support that day going off at 5-1. That race didnt work out and she’s been on the shelf ever since. Mandella comes back with her off the layoff and spots this one in a maiden 25 claimer off some decent works. The layoff is the big question, but the works suggest she is ready. Could be overlooked in a big wide open field of other claimers who are looking for their place. Across the board provides lots of value in a large field such as this.
go gettum- broncobuster
Hope everyone had a great Turkey Day. I sure did. My tummy is still uncomfortably full. Unfortunately, my blog was not full of winners yesterday – only got a couple of shows. I think we can top that, so let’s fatten our wallets instead of our bellies today with these picks.
Your BEST BET is 10 TEEN in HAWTHORNE RACE 7 (3/1 ML). Promising filly disappointed as the favorite in her last two here. Drops to her lowest and should score today for a winning outfit.
Your NEXT BEST BET is 1 BANROCK in CHURCHILL RACE 9 (6/1 ML). New Yorker has been on a roll with a string of 3 consecutive wins and 5 times in the money out of 6 starts this year. He’s been keeping very good company – lost by a nose to speed freak Presious Passion in June. Should get a cozy rail trip with pilot Desormeaux who knows him well.
Your VALUE BET is WIN/PLACE on 4 PATTI’S REGAL SONG in CHURCHILL RACE 8 (15/1 ML). Gray girl finished third behind Warbling in her debut at Keeneland last month. May like the switch to a route and has flashed some speed in her works. Trainer does well with 2nd starters.
Lady Luck
