Oaks Day, a great day of racingat Churchill Downs and thats where I am focusing today and tomorrow. 2 easy ones today folks Blind Luck in The Oaks and Rachel in the La Troienne.
 
BEST BET—CHURCHILL DOWNS–RACE 10–#1 SETSUKO.
This colt would ave been running for the roses tomorrow if he had enough graded earnings. Only 1 turf race under the belt, but his plastic track form is very good. That will transfer to the grass very well. Bejerano stays aboard and e should be flying in the stretch. Will save ground from the rail and that can make all the difference.
 
NEXT BEST—CHURCHILL DOWNS—RACE 3—# 8 SOLDERO.
Has tried the turf 4 times thus far with no luck. Gets a major jock change today from Thierot to Solis. Threw in a clunker lst time out over the plasitic at Keeneland, expect major improvement today going back to the weeds. Price will be right for a major score.
 
VALUE BET—CHURCILL DOWNS—RACE 6—EXACTA COLD—# 4 RACHEL ALEXANDRA—# 2 MORENA.
Rachel will rebound in a big way today folks, if she is anyhere near even money, bet the ranch on her. But to get more value for our buck, make a cold exacta with Rachel on top and , the only closer in the race , 30-1 M.L Morena to pick up the retreating early runners after Rachel beats them into submission.  

Back Stretch Al

Bonjour! Oaks Day at Churchill Downs…

Oaks Day has finally arrived! Check out my Kentucky Oaks selection in the Next Best category. May the horse be with you!

Best Bet: Churchill Downs Race 6 WIN #3 Zardana (3/1 ML). The $400,000 La Troienne Stakes (G 2) will be run at a mile and 1/16^th and features a short field of six fillies and mares trying to beat Rachel Alexandra. I think Zardana has what it takes to beat Rachel once again and I like her morning line odds. After watching her win the New Orleans Ladies Stakes I don’t think Rachel is a lock in this one, although the morning line puts her at 3/5. Let’s chase that value and go against the chalk!

Next Best: Churchill Downs Race 11 WIN #5 Blind Luck (6/5 ML). The $500,000 Kentucky Oaks (G 1) will be run at a mile and 1/8 and features a field of 14 fillies, many of which look like tossouts. Blind Luck is a Kentucky-bred Hollendorfer trainee who will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano and I’m looking for this filly at the wire. Blind Luck for the win!

Value Bet: Churchill Downs Race 10 WIN #5 Strike the Tiger (10/1 ML). The $175,000 American Turf Stakes (G 2) features eleven entries scheduled to run a mile and 1/16^th on the Louisville Turf. Strike the Tiger at 10/1? Sign me up! This Wesley Ward trainee definitely has his work cut out in here, but it’s hard to pass up a horse like this at 10/1. Enjoy the great racing today and check back tomorrow for Team R2D’s Derby plays!

Bonne Chance! Monsieur Chanceux

FRIDAY SELECTIONS FROM CHURCHILL DOWNS- BRONCOBUSTER

All eyes are on Churchill Downs today as the ladies take the stage for the Kentucky Oaks. They should be soaking up the last of the sun before the predicted deluge on Saturday. But hold on to your hats…really, hold on to your hats cause it’s going to be a windy one. Great field of fillies, but I’m sad that She Be Wild was injured and had to sit this one out. Blind Luck is the heavy and deserving favorite, but it’s not a done deal for this talented girl and I just can’t abide a 6/5 morning line. Gotta try to beat her and there’s a few in here that have a good shot. Tidal Pool is in great form – Beyers in the 100’s for her last two races plus she gets hot jock Borel. Amen Hallelujah is another to watch – finished 2nd in her last to Derby contender Devil May Care and has strung together an impressive string of bullet works. I’m going with another filly who recently edged out the fave. Check my value bet below along with a couple of other choice picks. I just love these big fields of top notch runners – lots of bargains to be found. Speaking of big fields, be sure to check back tomorrow for Team R2D’s Derby thoughts. Good Luck!

Your BEST BET is 6 DOUBLES PARTNER in RACE 10, The American Turf (10/1 ML). Rock Hard Ten boy should love the return to the turf after a dismal performance in the Lanes End. He won both grass starts and trainer is 20% in switches from synthetic to turf. Not to mention that Pletcher is having an all around terrific year. Love the rider change to Go Go.

Your NEXT BEST BET is 1 MORALIST in RACE 8, The Churchill Downs Turf Sprint (15/1 ML). This is a tough field, but I drooled a little when I saw the 15/1 morning line on this guy. One of my favorite Hawthorne buddies and a fast one at that. Shook things up in the Shakertown, setting a smoking pace and ended up 3rd. Reunited with Meier today and these two know how to win races together. Love the rail draw for this speedster, who is also capable of firing from off the pace. Which he may need to do with this field.

Your VALUE BET is WIN/PLACE on 7 CRISP in RACE 11, The Kentucky Oaks (8/1 ML). Blind Luck is the one to beat in this one, and Crisp just happened to do it in her last. Now granted Blind Luck had a bad trip and I’m not sure that the synthetic is her thing, but a win is still a win. This will be this lightly raced girl’s first start on the dirt, so that is a question mark, but based on her recent bullet in the slop, I think she’ll like it. There’s a ton of early speed in this race and that should suit her stalk and pounce style. Used this lady once before as my value bet and it paid off. She might just do it again.

Churchill
Friday

Best Bet: Race 3 #10 HYBRID (9-2) showed promise in a decent debut and should move up in a big way on the grass for McPeek.

Next Best: Race 2 #2 ISLAND BOUND (6-1) looks like a logical pick to break through with a maiden score.

Value Play: Race 11 #8 TIDAL POOL (8-1) should get first jump on the favorite and could pay well for Lukas.

el Secreto

Churchill Downs
Thursday

Best Bet: Race 3 #5 CREEK GIRL (3-1) adds bilnkers and could take the field all the way on the lead under Gomez.

Next Best: Race 1 #2 CHEF ERIC (4-1) drops back in against logical foes and should be tough with Talamo.

Value Play: Race 6 #8 RATTLIN GYPSY (6-1) ran a good one on this track in the fall and has been training well for her return.

el Secreto

Bonjour! Thursday at Churchill Downs…

Best Bet: Churchill Downs Race 1 WIN #6 Luv Gov (2/1 ML). Today’s opener is a mile and 1/16^th claimer with six entries. Luv Gov is a 4YO Kentucky-bred trained by D. Wayne Lucas who should have what it takes to win this one. I’ve also got my eyes on #2 Chief Eric (4/1 ML), who could offer some value in an exacta.

Next Best: Churchill Downs Race 3 WIN #3 Jungle Tale (2/1 ML). This mile-long allowance will be run on the Turf and Jungle Tale looks like the one to beat. This 3YO Florida-bred filly will be ridden by Julien Leparoux and is trained by Steve Asmussen – watch out for her at the wire.

Value Bet: Churchill Downs Race 10 WIN #3 Include the Cat (10/1 ML). The last race on the card is a maiden claimer that will be run at five and ½ furlongs and don’t forget to include the cat. This 3YO Kentucky-bred filly will be ridden by Julien Leparoux and could pull off an upset today. Be sure to check back tomorrow for Oaks analysis and Saturday for the Derby!

Bonne Chance! Monsieur Chanceux

Jersey Joe selections for Thursday, 4/29

4/29
The Meadowlands

Best Bet
Race 3
#1 Bastille

Next Best Bet
Race 7
#8 I’m A Cool Breeze

Value Bet
Race 5
#7 Woot Woot

Regards,
Jersey Joe, Mile Pro

Churchill
Wednesday

Best Bet: Race 6 #2 YOU BETTER BELIEVE (7-2) romped in his last and should make it two straight for Dutrow.

Next Best: Race 4 #6 FULL STORM (3-1) drops a lot in class and should be dangerous with Lebron.

Value Play: Race 7 #8 DANCE WITH ANOTHER (12-1) hails from a strong debut barn and has worked well in advance of this. Your welcome!

el Secreto