Jersey Joe handicaps for wagering on the Breeder’s Cup Part 2
 
An outstanding day of racing yesterday. I hope everyone had a chance to enjoy it.

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Tough losses yesterday for anyone who backed Cloudy’s Night, Biofuel and Ventura in my opinion. There’s no doubt all three ran winning races but just ran into enough poor racing luck to cost them a Championship. Ventura ran her race, but was victimized by some of the slowest Sprint fractions you’ll ever see in a race of this caliber. Biofuel was at least going to photo for win with She Be Wild if not for Negligee bumping her. And Rosemary Jr. ran an outstanding race for 13 furlongs before allowing Cloudy to drift and being clearly outworked in the final 1/16th by Murtagh. My condolences if you backed either of the three. 
 
Our Best Bet, Beautician, sent off at 8-1, ran a hard fought 2nd behind She Be Wild, and paid over $9.00 for the place spot. Jersey Joe is encouraged the we had the right prep races, as Tapitsfly was impressive once again in the Juvy Fillies Turf, while our Next Best, Smart Seattle ran out after getting a bit warm in the post and checking hard around the far turn.
 
Here are three winning wagers from Jersey Joe, The Mile Pro on Day 2 of The World Thoroughbred Championships.
 
Saturday
11/7  
 
Best Bet
Race 5
The Breeder’s Cup Mile
#8 Jacinto
His sophomore season began late this summer at Goodwood. Always talented, he’s finally been able to string a few starts in a row and that gives him a bigger chance of moving forward today. 2nd to Rip Wan Winkle in the QE II, he also got the better of ML 2nd choice Delegator in that one. How many times will we see the “other” European win. This could be another classic case. I’m unwilling to simply forgive Goldikova’s loss as .30 favorite last time and settle for even money again today.
 
 
Next Best Bet
Race 1
The Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf
#2 Viscount Nelson
In the Champagne, Dettori came out of the win on Poet’s Voice comparing him to Dubai Mellenium. Viscount chased that one around the track valiantly that day on his firmest footing to date. O’Brien has gone on the record saying the firm ground will improve this one’s chances. Will be laying close throughout. Huge chance today for dynamite connections. 
 
Value Bet
Race 8
The Breeeder’s Cup Classic
WPS
#5 Twice Over
Connections who took the F & M Turf Friday back here with a good looking 4 y.o. Has come back from a two month break in the summer to perfect 3 for 3 record with the last two coming at today’s mile and a quarter distance. The last a Group I shocker at 14-1, punching his airline ticket for today’s contest. Getting good at the right time. 20-1 ML. 
 
Regards,
Jersey Joe, Mile Pro

Breeders’ Cup Wagering and Picks for Friday November 5th.

WIN: Best bet: Race 7: Filly and Mare Sprint. # 9 VENTURA.  While it may be argued that this year’s edition is tougher than the 2009 running that VENTURA (Chester House) won by an easy four lengths, it could also be said that the Bobby Frankel trained filly is even better twelve months later. Lightly campaigned this year she is fresh and returns to Santa Anita where she has won her only two starts which were both at this distance. Similar to last year, Ventura drew a wide post and there is enough early speed entered to benefit her closing style.

WIN:Next Best: Race 8, Ladies Classic. # 8 RAINBOW VIEW.  Cross entered in the Filly and Mare Turf, RAINBOW VIEW (Dynaformer) has chosen this option. Very highly rated as a juvenile, the John Gosden trained filly was disappointing in the One Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) and Epsom Oaks (Eng-G1) but has shown a return to form this fall, primarily when winning the Matron S. (Ire-G1). Her better showings have coincided with softer ground which may, in addition to the mile and a quarter distance, explain her inability to defeat Lahaleeb (Ire) (Redback) in the E.P. Taylor (Can-G1) on firm turf in her last start. The ability to handle soft turf has translated well for horses trying the Pro-Ride surface and Rainbow View filly can pull off a mild upset for the stable that sent Raven’s Pass (Elusive Quality) out for his win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) last year.

WIN/PLACE/SHOW Value bet: Race 4, Juvenile Fillies Turf. # 11 JUNIA TEPZIA.  $5,000 yearling purchase showed good speed in both her impressive wins which came in Italy. Has a strong pedigree, being out of a half-sister to 2005 Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) hero Footstepsinthesand (GB). Saddled by leading German trainer Peter Schiergen, she has a favorable running style, and while her form is hard to evaluate, she should not be ignored with Kieran Fallon aboard.

Oak Tree/Breeders Cup
Friday

Best Bet: In the MARATHON,  #5 FATHER TIME (3-1) looms the one to beat in our book even though the morning-line choice just defeated him. Consider this a ‘value’ Best Bet.

Next Best: In the FILLY AND MARE TURF, the Juddmonte roll continues as the classy #6 MIDDAY (4-1) puts away a solid field in the stretch to give Henry Cecil his elusive ‘Cup victory.

Value Play: In the LADIES’ CLASSIC, #8 RAINBOW VIEW (6-1) looks very good to us in a deep field, and the odds should be excellent. The top filly had a nice prep in Canada leading up to this endeavor.

el Secreto

The Breeders’ Cup at Oak Tree, Friday…

Gentleman and Ladies Start your engines, Under Starters Orders, There they go, We Have Blast OFF……..
Blogged to death, talking is over, reputations are up for grabs. Its ladies day at the Breeders but we start with the Marathon……..Clean Sweep by Europe this weekend probably not but let’s put our money where our mouths are and let the games begin.

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BEST BET ….RACE 6 …… # 6 MIDDDAY.
Filly and mare turf mile and a quarter.. Fascinating contest tactics again Queally the only overseas jock against the rest, pitting his wits against some great turf jocks and conditioners.
 Who will make the pace feeling DYNAFORCE  will go off the front, whoever does will be setting it up for a classic home turn strike from this potent trio of Queally Cecil and Juddmonte.
 This Daughter of Oasis Dream has done nothing wrong all season except come up against top class fillies in Sariska. Henry Cecil admits he has yet to get to the bottom of Midday and after her defeat on Arc day she was back out on the gallops the next day. First time lasix sure to give a boost.
 One to watch is the charghe of Chad Brown MARAM shrewd young trainer who won a Breeders race last year, 5 starts beaten once by only a neck 15/1 m/l.
 
NEXT BEST …. RACE 8 …… # 6 COCOA BEACH.
Ladies Classic mile and an 1/8th. Careless Jewel just has to turn up according to some pundits to reap the glory. Impressive record the Woodbine form has held up all over North America this year and top Canadian jock fly’s in for this mount. Will dictate our of the 1 hole but and it will catch me if you can. Morning reports haven’t been to kind but this gal will be ready. Zenyatta defected to take on the boys I am not so sure that is a good thing when you look at Zenyatta’s last race which included a fast finishing COCOA BEACH. This gal stumbled at the start of that race and lost a good 3 lengths but came to battle back and just go down under a great ride from Migliore. Godolphin are looking to blast off into the record books with this gal and the price is right……..
 
VALUE BET …. RACE 3 …… # 6MASTERY # 5 FATHER
                                            TIME. BOXED EXACTA.
I just can’t split these two classic duellers who reoppose each other after that epic race at Doncaster the third leg of the English Triple Crown the St Leger. Frankie Dettori chose the wrong horse that day but gets back in the irons on Mastery who came with a punishing run in the final furlong . Father Time will play the waiting game today and follow Mastery that I am sure of….. has also a turn of foot but it’s when to use it. Fascinating contest the battle for third? That’s on another page.
H.W.

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The Breeders’ Cup at Oak Tree, Friday…

Best Bet: Oak Tree Race 6 WIN #4 Magical Fantasy (3/1 ML). The Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) offers a $2,000,000 purse and will be run at 1 Mile and ¼ on the Turf. Magical Fantasy is an outstanding filly who has won her last four starts. Her most recent win came in a solid prep for the Breeders’ Cup, where she won a 1 Mile and ¼ stakes race on the Turf at Oak Tree with a $300,000 purse. This filly is no stranger to graded stakes races and I expect her to give an amazing performance this afternoon.

Next Best: Oak Tree Race 8 WIN #4 Lethal Heat (20/1 ML). The Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic (G1) will be run at 1 Mile and 1/8th and I think this is an open race. A top field of fillies and mares are entered in here, but Lethal Heat could be a longshot worth playing, especially at 20/1. This filly finished second in her last three starts, but last time out she was right behind Zenyatta. She seems to like the distance and surface, so I don’t think she’ll have any trouble with
inexperience. Last year she won multiple stakes races and I think her resume will be polished with a Breeders’ Cup victory today. Having said that, there is undeniable talent in this field and Lethal Heat will face some very tough competition, including Careless Jewel, Life Is Sweet, and Music Note to name a few.

Value Bet: Oak Tree Race 7 WIN/PLACE/SHOW #1 Free Flying Soul (50/1ML). The Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1) will be run at 7 furlongs for a purse of $1,000,000. I’m going for Free Flying Soul across the board in here and I think this filly has what it takes to upset this one. Free Flying Soul has her work cut out and a win
will be no easy task. She won her last start in a 6 ½ furlong stakes race at Oak Tree and has finished in the money 5/6 this year. Mike Smith is aboard and I think this race could be one to remember. Let’s hope those odds go up even more! Enjoy the first day of the Breeders’ Cup and be sure to check back with Team R2D for Saturday’s selections.

Bonne Chance! Monsieur Chanceux

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BEST BET—SANTA ANITA—RACE 5 —-# 3 BLIND LUCK.
Once again I am a firm believer in teh CALDER/ SO. CAL shuttle. The So. Fla track produces runner sthat love the fake track. BLIND LUCK went from CALDER and a 13 length win to a Grade I victory over this strip a month ago. We know she can get the 2 turns, we know she likes the track surface…SEND IT IN.
 
NEXT BEST—SANTA ANITA —-RACE 2—# 9 STUNNINGLY.
A nice play in the pre-breeders card. She made a nice move in her last going 6f at SA. The extre 1/2 furlong will be greatly appreciated. Garrett Gomez stays aboard and she will be coming fast and hard late. Get it done at 6 1/2 today.
 
VALUE BET—SANTA ANITA—RACE 3—# 4 CLOUDYS KNIGHT.
This old war horse is coming in off 2 very impressive wins. Jonathan Sheppard has him at tight as can be. We know he loves the grass and can run all day. I have on authority that MASTERY is not in top shape for todays race. That makes him a good play against and CLOUDYS KNIGHT  a good play in the BC Marathon.
 
Good Luck today, Tomorrow is the finale at SA and the Breeders Cup. Dont forget to see my other BC Plays on R2D.

Back Stretch Al Breeders’ Cup Wagering

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Yip! It’s finally here. First day of the Breeders’ Cup Wagering with Racing2day.com. Hopefully this lady’s luck from yesterday will stick around today. Next Best won and Value Bet placed, which made up for my Best Bet scratch. Now, on to today’s business.

Your BEST BET is 1 CARELESS JEWEL in RACE 8, The Breeders Cup Ladies Classic (2/1 ML). Now that it’s official that supermare Zenyatta will be running with the boys this year, picking a winner in this one is a difficult job indeed. Godolphin has a one-two punch in entries Cocoa Beach and Music Note. Cocoa Beach has a chance to shine without following in Zenyatta’s shadow as she did last year. Music Note is in terrific form right now, having won two consecutive G1s with ease. Finished 3rd to Zenyatta and Music Note last year, but she’s been pretty tough in 2009. Life is Sweet is another interesting filly in this. She seems to have slipped a little since some amazing performances last spring, but she has been working well for this and loves Santa Anita. Brit Proviso won her US debut in the Spinster at Keeneland and looks to be a contender. But my money is on gray girl CARELESS JEWEL. She has won 5 of 6 starts, finishing third in her debut, and just keeps getting better. She posted a smoking 106 Beyer when she easily won the 1 1/4 mile Alabama by 11 lengths in August. Even though dirt seems to be her preferred surface, she boasts a bullet-ridden work tab on the synthetic, noteably the 6f in 1:11 on 10/27. The hard-packed Pro-Ride this year may play in her favor. She has tons of early speed and once she’s gone may be hard to catch.

Your NEXT BEST BET is 4 MAGICAL FANTASY in RACE 6, The Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf (3/1 ML). Consistent filly is coming off a string of 4 Graded Stakes turf wins, 2 of which were at this distance at this track. She’s been working very well on the Santa Anita grass and posted a nice 6f bullet here on 10/4. Regular rider Solis stays with her. It’s not going to be easy against this bunch and a clean trip is mandatory, but I think she’ll get the job done.

Your VALUE BET is WIN/PLACE/SHOW on 8 SHE BE WILD in RACE 5, The Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies (8/1 ML). This looks like a wide-open race and this tough Kentucky girl may be ignored at the windows. Got caught by Negligee in the Alcibiades, but was undefeated up to that point. Sharp works at Keeneland plus she loves the synthetic. Trainer Catalano knows how to win Graded Stakes.

Lady Luck

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All eyes of the horseracing world on Santa Anita today and tomorrow and that includes those of Jersey Joe. Now, if by chance, we should happen to outshine a few members of the resident R2D thoroughbred team here on the harness blog, I don’t want anyone to be too surprised. The Mile Pro is actually of huge fan of the sport’s biggest day, and hasn’t missed a race in 25 years! Best of luck everyone!        
 
Best Bet
Race 5
The Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies
#4 Beautician
It was a tale of two trips for two horses in the Alcibiades, when tiring pacesetter Decelerator drifted out at the 1/8th pole. Maragh and Negligee were given a huge hole to run through while Beautician and Desormeaux were simultaneously knocked sideways twice, losing all chance. She was given a patient ride while handling the surface and was only just being asked to run when this incident occurred. She draws well for this and should sit another stalking trip behind what is guaranteed to be a fast pace.
 
Next Best Bet
Race 4
The Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
#3 Smart Seattle
She chased Tapitsfly in her first 2 turn try in the PG Johnson and came up a bit short. She’s made winning moves in all 3 of her lifetime starts. She has shown the ability to relax and settle nicely behind the speed. Rose back in the irons and he knows he may have compromised this filly’s chances in each of the last two with premature moves. In the expert hands of Motion, this gal puts it all together today.
 
Value Bet
Race 8
The Breeder’s Cup Ladies Classsic
Exacta Box
#5 Proviso, #7 Music Note
Proviso made quite the splash in a visually spectacular win in the Spinster, and gave every indication she’d be a force to reckon with in the big one Friday. No knocks on the Godolphin tour-de-force Music Note. She comes here off of a pair of absolutely dominant Grade 1 victories out east. She was a major factor on this strip in last year’s edition. No reason to expect her not to fire. 
 
Regards,
Jersey Joe, Mile Pro

FRIDAY BREEDER’S CUP SELECTIONS FROM SANTA ANITA- BRONCOBUSTER

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All the build up and hype has been going on all week and the first day of two has finally arrived.  Several horses double entered and final decisions were made on Monday and the build up to this years Breeder’s began as the final pieces to the puzzle were put into place. 
 
I would like to thank R2D and all their efforts to market and promote this event along with their sponsorships to the charity races for Old Friends.
Hopefully Broncobuster can can come up with some winners for such a good cause.
 
Here are some considerations for today and i wish everyone lots of luck at this years Breeder’s Cup.
 
Best Bet- Race 7 #9 Ventura, M/L 8-5. WIN WAGER. Classy as they come with 2.2 million in her saddle bag. She looks to close out a great campaign and possibly a career with this 7F sprint.  Draws a nice outer post and Gomez will have her in a winning spot.  Her race to win or lose, but her class will be able to dig down pretty deep.  She is 2/2 on the synthetic at Santa Anita and 3 wins in 5 at todays distance.  This classy gal is 17/19 in the frame and a win here puts her shy of 3 million for her illusturious career. 
 
Next Best- Race 4 #8 Lillie Langtry, M/L 3-1. WIN WAGER. O’brien juvenile filly finds a nice spot in the juvenile turf.  She towers over this field with earnings nearing a million and has NEVER been out of the frame, going 3-2-1 in her six starts.  She has posted triple beyer ratings in 3 of 6 career starts while many of her competitors have yet to break a 90.  Anywhere near her morning line would be a generous offering. 
 
Value Bet- Race 6 #3 Rutherienne, M/L 8-1.   WIN, PLACE, SHOW.  5 yr old daughter of Pulpit has made a career playing a brides maid to Forever Together and will try to finally turn the tables and have her day in the sun!  This classy gal has 1.2 million made, yet she has never been in a Breeder’s Cup!  That stat may not mean a whole lot, as she has raced in 18 consectutive Graded Stake events. She has been in the frame in 13 consectutive starts! She lost a head bob 3 back to Forever Together and a repeat of that is good enough to consider this one at a value price!  Hard not to go across the board on a gal who is 20/22 on the board, especially if anywhere near her morning line!
 
go gettum- broncobuster

THURSDAY SELECTIONS FROM OAKTREE- BRONCOBUSTER

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The bad news from yesterday is my value bet was scratched, so no chance to hit the juicy price and my best bet selection was wagered off the board!  3-5 hardly enough to buy a coffee, but the Turfway shipper delivered on that 3/5 promise and gave this tipster a winner for the 3rd consecutive day.  A winner is a winner, but, lets see if we can get a little bang for the buck and see if we can roll this to a 4th consectutive day.
 
Best Bet- Race 8 #3 Broadway Promise, M/L 5-2.WIN WAGER. Races for half the value than the 50K he raced for in his debut at Churchill and takes a double drop from the maiden 40K he tried last out.  He battled the good fight in that event but the time was to rapid for him.  A reclassification to this level will make a world of difference and fully expect to see this one in the winners circle to get his 1st picture taken.
 
Next Best- Race 6 #3 Saxophone, M/L 4-1.WIN WAGER.  Smoked dime claimers 2 back and then took an agressive double jump but found 16 claimers too salty.  Quickly retreats back to the same dime claimers he recently handled with ease.  A repeat back to that form will put him back in the frame and possibly a date with the photographer.
 
Value Bet- Race 7 #10 Machismo, M/L 12-1. WIN PLACE SHOW. One of two that Sadler has in the race and this one comes in off a layoff. Was last seen in a Grade I. on dubai world cup day, but was no match against the likes of Indian Blessing.  Should find an OPT 80K claimer down the hill to his liking, even with the layoff.  Morning works suggest he’s ready to fire and the other Sadler entry could very well set this one up for him. May pounce at a value price.
 
go gettum- broncobuster