BLOG- FRIDAY NIGHT AT MOHAWK- BRONCOBUSTER

The month is coming to a close with only 2 more shots at helping out the ROI… It’s been a roller coaster ride this month, but, Bronco’s hitting 40% winners this month from 27 selections.  The ROI needs some help though, so we’ll sacrifice the more obvious tonight and see if we can’t find some decent value plays to help out the ROI…

MOHAWK- BRONCOBUSTER

Best Bet- Race 1 #5 Kandor Hanover, M/L 5-2.  Has a couple of things to consider tonight that leads me to believe this one will be best. He gets much needed class relief and on the drop should be dangerous.  He also gets a positive driver switch to Randy Waples, who can be aggressive at times and an equipment change to a blind bridle tonight might be what the doctor ordered.  This guy can kickstart your night and also keep your daily double tickets alive!

Next Best- Race 11 #6 Smashbox, M/L 7-1.   Has banked over 100K this year but has gone the last 10 starts or so without a win.  That aversion to winning of late will help drive his price up.  He is capable of an upset in the final race of the night if Rick Zeron can get him motivated. He has the productive post needed to help his cause.  Include him on all of your last race superfecta tickets and your late daily double.

Value Bet- Race 7 #1 Signal, M/L 7-1. WIN PLACE SHOW.  Has a strong closing ability.  That’s a huge asset at Mohawk which favors closers! She should be making late gains and hopes to be close enough to make a serious dent against these.  The projected favorite Pink Kangaroo can be tough when at her best, but, she’s not having the kind of year she did last year.  She also has been making shoeing changes the past few starts suggesting that everything might not be in order.  She also is a fan favorite and always gets overbet.   Take a calculated risk on a horse that will provide a value price and hope for the lions share!

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The positive ROI continued Friday night with 11-1 shot value pick given right here on R2D.  An across the board play netted a profit of over $ 10 and if you caught him a gimmick, the return was even higher, with the favorite off the board.

Saturday night provides lots of opportunity and what a great card!  2.1 Million dollars in purses tonight which include the Canadian Breeders Championships,  The Roses are Red final,  The Armbro Flight, and the highlight of the night, The Maple Leaf Trot which goes for over 700K!

Stick with me folks and lets see if the positive ROI continues!

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Best Bet- Race 10 THE ROSES ARE RED FINAL, #4 Dreamfair Eternal, M/L 2-1. This is a very class mare who is sporting a 3 race winning streak and also looks poised to defend her title.  She won this race last year in come from behind fashion and has the goods to repeat tonight.

Next Best- Race 12 #2 Our Lucky Killean, M/L 6-1.  Risky play but, i’ll go out on a limb on this classy old warrior, as he rejoins forces in the Cassie Coleman stable.  That’s an angle I’m all over and it shouldn’t take long for this veteran to regain some winning form, especially at this modest level. Expect him to take quite a bit support on the homecoming of sorts!  Watch the tote board for the clues and make sure the price is in your comfort zone!

Value Bet- Race 9 THE ARMBRO FLIGHT FINAL. #3 Friendly Amigo, M/L 12-1. WIN PLACE SHOW.  All the support will go to the corner of Buck I St. Pat and for good reason.  The price will be very short on her and lets land on an alternative with some real value. Trevor Ritchie can be dangerous in these types of situations and his price will be very square.  If the expected favorite makes any miscues, this one could be dangerous at a price.  When you’re itchy, bet Ritchie!  Across the board to spread the risk and hope for the lions share!

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The world of simulcasting provides the punter with lots of options.  Most racetracks, OTB’s, and online platforms such as R2D offer multiple tracks daily to choose from.  When considering what tracks to play, what wagers to make, the player must develop their own strategy that works best of them.  Some players will play any and every race, any track and want constant action while others prefer to take a more subtle approach.  The very disciplined player will sit and wait for the type of race or horse that offers up the best shot at a decent return.  These players in the long run usually have a higher ROI because of how selective and disciplined they are.   Looking at all of these tracks and races offered in a day can become over whelming even for the most seasoned simulcast pro.  The main thing to remember is there is nothing wrong in passing up a race if there isn’t something of value hopping off the page at you!  With so many races offered each day, there is always another race to play.  Budget within your means and ensure you have some working capital when a potential value race finally presents itself.  The cardinal sin to playing every race is many go broke by the time they finally see something with real potential.  Nothing worse than seeing a horse jump off the page at you after you’ve gone bust.

If you find a track that seems to be kind to you, then stick with it!  Anyone who has been following my Mohawk selections this summer have probably cashed some good tickets!  To date with 54 selections given,  Broncobuster is hitting 31% winners, with both a positive ROI and positive winnings.

Let’s see if that trend continues into the weekend as Mohawk gets geared up for the Maple Leaf trot and the Canadian Breeders.  Here are some selections that could offer up some value and keep the ROI going in the right direction!

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Best Bet-  Race 5 #7 Sammy Syd, M/L 7-2.  This mare finds herself in a likely spot on the return to this circuit.  She is mainly a preferred type on the B tracks such as Western Fair and usually gives a good account of herself.  Not too long ago she was racing here against the best mares on the grounds.  These are more her kind and at this level should be too good for these.

Next Best- Race 3 #6 CR Muscle Power, M/L 9-2.  Wide open trot event that should see many getting some support.  That should keep this guys price square.  He is another one who has been recently facing the toughest horses on the grounds.  As a long shot he found that going too tough for him and ducks into a straight claimer.  That re-classifying should get him motivated to do better things and he finds himself with a productive post to get the job done.

Value Bet- Race 7 #1 Welcam, M/L 6-1.  WIN PLACE SHOW.  This guy is a risky proposition as he gets protected tonight at a higher claiming level than he usually competes at.  That should drive his price up, but, i like the spirited tries he’s had recently which show some life!  He is the type that looks like he’s rounding into some good form and some good things may happen as a result of that.  He does try tougher tonight, but, has a license to do good things.  Worth an across the board play and possibly include him some of the gimmicks to get the real value going!

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Must have had Meatloaf on my mind when i made my selections for Monday.  Two out of Three ain’t bad!  The best bet and next best bet’s delivered on the 2-1 promises and that helped for a 2/3 night.  Unfortunately, the value play wasn’t quite ready to make a dent.

Before we get to tonights selections a couple of news items to pass along.  Macho Again who finished 2nd in the preakness to Big Brown a couple of years ago has been retired to stud duty.  His stallion career will begin in South America for the upcoming season.  In  the harness world, the connections of Sportswriter have withdrawn him from this weekend’s Adio’s pace at the Meadows and have sent him home back to Canada where he will prep for the upcoming Confederation Cup which will be held at Flamboro Downs.  Casie Coleman looks to rebound this guy from a disappointing 7th in the Meadowlands pace, after having won the North America Cup last month at Mohawk.  Should Coleman pull it off, she will add another Confederation Cup to her mantle, after winning the race a few years ago with American Ideal.

Let’s see if tonights selections can find their way to the winner’s circle.

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Best Bet-  Race 5 #7 Armbro Continental, M/L 5-1.  Is a very high profile individual and when he is right can trot with the best on the grounds. He finds himself in a likely spot to capitalize, should he make a good appearance of himself leading up to the race. He has had many layoffs over his career due to soundness issues, so the connections and conditioner have a done a remarkable job at bank rolling him while the going is good. He should be too good for these

Next Best-  Race 2 #4 Rowdy, M/L 4-1. Has been a hot item in the claim box due to his sharp current form.  He’s as good as he’s ever been right now and debuts for a new barn tonight.  No reason to think that he won’t continue to grind out good things at this modest claiming level.

Value Bet- Race 10 #1 Mystical Ryan, M/L 7-1. WIN PLACE SHOW.  Goes back to team Baillargeon after they shelled out 40K from a recent claimer.  He was in their barn for an extended period of time, so it shouldn’t take no time to get him the way they want him.  They’ve taken an aggressive approach for this first start back in the barn, as they place him in an OPT. 60K claimer, which is two levels higher than his last race. That alone should keep the price square.  The cozy draw beats the post 10 he had last time and that should even things out a bit. With a trip he can get in the frame against these.

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I’m back from a week long vacation where i got some nice R&R.  Was back at home in time to see my NAC selection One More Laugh win the Meadowlands pace.  Some of you may remember he was my value pick in the North America Cup and you may also remember the brutal trip he got that night!  If you put that in your hip pocket for future reference, you may have had this guy on your ticket last night!

None of that calibre tonight at Mohawk, but still some nice value to be had!  Here are some selections that may offer up some nice prices…

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Best Bet-  Race 6 #1 Madrigal Mindale, M/L 4-1.  Couldn’t handle the brisk time of his last race where the winner put up a time that was very rapid for the classification.  He won’t need to show 1:53 speed in here tonight.  His 1:55 type speed puts him in the frame and this 2 yr. old son of Camluck is trained by a conditioner that is very good with rookies.  The inside draw should help keep him close enough to strike.

Next Best- Race 2 #6 Beautiful Soul, M/L 7-1.  Offers up what could be some decent value and from a very productive post position. I like that one of the leading drivers on this cirucit choiced off another one that was only 7-2 in the morning line to drive this one instead. That decision could be significant!

Value Bet- Race 8 #5 Dillar A Dollar, M/L 10-1. WIN PLACE SHOW.  A new edition to team Zeron and this one hasn’t been seen since last November.  Zeron is known for bringing them back ready and this one may pop up at first asking.  The price should be juicy enough for an across the board play.  If you fool around with gimmick’s,  having him on some tickets might offer up some generous returns.

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Last set of picks from this scribe before taking off on a week long vacation.  During my absence, i urge you to check out some of the other blogs and winners abound from the other tipsters.  For the harness players, check out the selections from Jersey Joe, especially during the peak part of the Big M race meet.  Lots of big races coming up there, including the Meadowlands Pace and the Hambo…. Continued good luck and good fortune!
See you when I return…
For now here are some Mohawk picks to chew on..
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Best Bet- Race 2 #6 Shady Cam, M/L 5-2.  Has been on fire since adding lasix to his program.  He faces a formidable group including Mr. Apples who is dropping from the open class.  That one should take a fair amount of support which could keep this guys price fair.  The compact group gives this winner of $ 300K lifetime every opportunity and should be full of himself in the lane.
Next Best-  Race 8 #7 Whippet Good, M/L 8-5.  Takes a drop in class for you to consider.  I’ll take the drop and pop angle and feel that when at his best this guy’s overall talent is higher than any other in here.  Today’s OPT 60,000 claimer is a cut below what he normally faces. That should bode well for him.
Value Bet- Race 7 EXA BOX 5-6-8.  Wide open affair allows us to take a shot at a gimmick.  Will try an EXA box in hopes of some nice value. #5 Legacy N Diamonds, M/L 5-2.  Upset the apple cart last out at 17-1 !!  Hope you were all over him.  His form is sharp at the moment, draws well for this, but, i expect a much shorter price tonight, so we’ll lean for the gimmick for the juicy price.  #6 My Fella, M/L 4-1.  Offers a great post position to consider tonight.  He had a bad post last out and was mainly a fringe player.  From this spot he should be more formidable.  #8 John Dilinger, M/L 7-1.  He is a hot and cold type and someone who isn’t the most reliable.  Because of that many will shy away from his profile. That usually increases the odds and prices.  He takes a drop for your consideration and could get on the ticket at a price!
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Only 2 days left to hop aboard the Bronco train…  A much needed vacation is in order, so we’ll see if i can make some holiday bonus money before departing.  Look for my return in about a week or so…

Let’s get to the Friday night Mohawk card which is full of opportunities.  Mostly wide open overnights with a final of Summertime Series for good measure.

Best Bet- Race 2 #7 Neocon, M/L 5-2.  Fairly wide open tilt, but, this one fits this class so well and team Baillargeron is looking to their first win with him.  If he brings his “A” game, he could be very tough to deny.

Next Best- Race 9 #7 Powershot, M/L 6-1.  Hasn’t been in good form recently and because of that will offer up a square price. Has added lasix for this start which may suggest what his problems have been.  The conditioner is very good at turning around a horses form and he’s worth a flyer in this spot.

Value Bet- Race 11 #4 Bunny Mach, M/L 8-1. WIN PLACE SHOW.  Has been hinting that some good things are on the horizon.  She qualified in fine fashion back in May and subsequently had some bad post positions on the B circuit. She still managed to show some life in those starts and then showed she might belong with these in her last start, when she paced her mile in 1:53.3.  That kind of speed bodes well for her against these and Rick Zeron’s aggressive driving won’t hurt her chances any.  A good performance could be looming!  Worth an across the board try at a value price.

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Nice crowd on hand Sunday for the Queen’s Plate and to see her majesty Queen Elizabeth II.  Congrat’s to the connections of Big Red Mike who went wire to wire and held off a cavalry charge.  He was certainly brave at every call and deserved the trophy, along with the $ 600,000 part of the purse.

Onto Mohawk tonight for some juicy picks in an attempt to get the ROI going in the right direction..

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Best Bet- Race 9 #5 Rock Me Amastreos, M/L 8-5.  Was Jody Jamieson choice of 2 and that bodes well the kind of ability he thinks this filly has. Brethour usually brings them to Mohawk ready and Jamieson who is at another track earlier in the night, decides it’s worth the drive to come back to Mohawk on his way home.  Big shot against these.

Next Best-  Race 8 #1 Takeachancewithme, M/L 3-1.  Jody J. shows up to Mohawk just in time for this trotter and the post position draw gives him all sorts of options. I like that this one comes back quicker now after showing a break in his card.  He should be much more fit now and able to give this one a try tonight.

Value Bet- Race 6 EXA BOX 1-6-8.  Looking for some real value in this wide open race. There is no real stand out or anyone who seems to knocking them lights out, so lets try for juicy prices that could really give the ROI a shot in the arm.  #1 Fish Semalu, M/L 7-2.  Is showing the best form of anyone and should take some support off the rail.  Filion drives him  for a second time tonight which should increase this ones chances.  #6 Urgently, M/L 9-2. Is a professional maiden after 23 tries, yet Jody J had been originally named.  Oliver takes over with Jody at Grand River until later in the program.  A nice draw and should offer a square price even in the gimmicks.  #8 Big Fun, M/L 6-1.  Another fringe player over the last 18 months, but gets a change in trainer and driver for your consideration.  Both appear positive and Companion can get them fired up early.  Waples adds to the appeal.

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Are all the stars in alignment? Roger Attfield hopes so as he sends out 3 quality horses to compete in 3 stake events today at Woodbine and in front her majesty Queen Elizabeth II., no less!  Her first time in attendance since 1997 and be best assured Roger will have his horses ready to roll.  His longest shot of the 3 will probably be Not Bourbon in the Highlander Stakes, followed by Spice Route in the Singspiel, and lastly will send out Mobilizer in the Queen’s plate.  That one is listed as the second choice at 7-2 behind the well regarded Hotep, who has competed in the U.S this year, while on the Kentucky Derby trail.  Although he didn’t manage to make a dent or even start in the Kentucky Derby, he comes into this race fresh and merits some respect.  As usual a pre race inspection for a race such as this is a must to see what horses look the part and are acting the part.  With the Queen on hand, the track will be packed with thousands of fans and it will be interesting to see what horses actually handle it!  If you are betting via simulcast, listening closely and view as much as you can from the paddock and the post parade leading up to the race.

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Best Bet- Race 8 SINGSPIEL STAKES, #6 Spice Route, M/L 9-5.  Graded III stake here in the Singspiel and this one just looks too good for these.  He loves the turf and Mike Smith has come all this way for the ride.  That’s enough for me!  He should give this guy a good stalking trip and should be gobbling them up in the long E.P. Taylor turf course.  With any luck it will Roger’s second win of the day.

Next Best- Race 10 QUEEN’S PLATE, #9 Mobilizer, M/L 7-2.  Roger Attfield has won the Queen’s Plate 8 times in his illustrious career. His first Queen’s plate win was way back in 1976. His last Queen’s plate win was in 2008 with Not Bourbon who competes today in the Highlander. Mobilizer gives him a decent shot at number 9!!  Even though he has Mike Smith aboard in an earlier race with Spice Route, he gives a boost of confidence in local Jockey Jono Jones.  A trip to the winner’s circle to greet the Queen with his tux, tails, and infamous top hat will truly make this a day to remember!  As for the horse, Mobilizer finished 2nd in the plate trial and has sicne worked in fine fashion, 6F 1:13B. Most successful horses in past Queen’s plate have taken the route that this has taken and used the trial as a springboard. He will need to handle the environment and handle Hotep and take care of business!  If that happens, destiny awaits..

Value Bet-  Race 6 HIGHLANDER STAKES, #7 Not Bourbon, M/L 6-1. WIN PLACE SHOW.  If Roger Attfield is to have a 3/3 day, it starts here with an outsider in Not Bourbon.  This 5 yr. old won the Queen’s plate 2 yrs ago and competes today on the weeds in the Highlander. Jono Jones who rode this guy to victory in the plate in 2008, will guide him again today and will also ride for Attfield in today’s Plate.  He will break from the outer post and hopes to get a following trip.  Anywhere near his morning line would good enough for a nice WPS try.

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North America’s oldest stakes race goes this Sunday with the 151st running of the Queen’s Plate Stakes at Woodbine and this year’s race is garnering much attention, not only with the quality of the this year’s field, but, probably even more so by the fact that this year’s race will be wittnessed live by her majesty Queen Elizabeth, II.   It will be the fourth time that she’s been in attendance for this race and the first since 1997.

Sam-Son Farms leads the way with 3 entries for Sunday’s race, including the post time favorite Hotep.  Hotep will break from post 11 and comes into this race fresh, after making a half hearted attempt at the 3 yr. old Kentucky Derby trail.  That journey begun at the Fairgrounds where he started in the Risen Star and subsequently pointed to the Kentucky Derby trial before the connections decided to scratch him from that event and freshen him up for this race.   Another familar face as always is trainer Roger Attfield, who will send out Mobilizer.  Attfield has won this race 8 times in his illustrious career, with the first being in 1976.

To see what my Queen’s Plate selection is, check back with my blog on Sunday!  In the meantime, here are some interesting facts about history of the Queen’s Plate that you may not know, followed by some selections for tonight’s Mohawk program.

The Queen’s Plate is North America’s oldest thoroughbred horse race. It is run at a distance of 1¼ miles for 3-year-old thoroughbred horses foaled in Canada. The race takes place each June at Woodbine Racetrack, Etobicoke (Toronto), Ontario. For safety reasons, since 1995 the race has been limited to a maximum of 17 starters.

The Queen’s Plate celebrated its 150th running on June 21, 2009.

The first race in the Canadian Triple Crown, it is followed by the Prince of Wales Stakes in July and the Breeders’ Stakes in August.

Initiated in 1859 by the then president of the Toronto Turf Club, Sir Casimir Gzowski, a distinguished Polish engineer and ancestor of the popular Canadian broadcaster, Peter Gzowski, the Queen’s Plate was inaugurated on June 27, 1860, at the Carleton racetrack in Toronto, Ontario. The prize of 50 guineas was originally awarded by Queen Victoria. Elizabeth II, as Queen of Canada, is patron of the event, and various other members of the Canadian Royal Family have been in attendance through the years.

Horses owned by Windfields Farm have won the Queen’s Plate eleven times, but the most successful was the stable owned by Joseph E. Seagram, a prominent distiller from Waterloo, Ontario. Seagram’s stable won it on twenty occasions between 1891 and 1935 including eight times in a row between 1891 and 1898, and ten times in eleven years from 1891 to 1901.

The record time for the race since 1957 when it was run at 1¼ miles is 2:01 4/5 set by Kinghaven Farms Izvestia in 1990.

In 2006, Josie Carroll became the first woman trainer to ever win the Queen’s Plate. In 2007, Emma-Jayne Wilson became the first female jockey to win the race.

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Best bet-  Race 2 #6 Dali, M/L 8-5.  Has the most talent of any of these and when he brings his “A” game can be a very tough one to deny.  He’s been known to puzzle us with sub par performances from time to time, so there’s always a bit of a risk factor with him.  However, he races tonight in a level which is a cut below from the best on the grounds and should be able to show his dominance.

Next Best- Race 9 #2 Smokey’s Luck, M/L 6-1.  Had a 2 race win streak snapped last out and considering how un-foregiving many players can be, i’ll stay on his bandwagon in hopes of a rebound at a square price.  Trainer Montini is as dangerous as they come and can easily get this horse back on the winning ways.  Will be interesting to see if an equipment change is reported on race night.  This inside draw should be cozy for this late closer and lets hope for an overlay.

Value Bet- Race 6 #8 John Dilinger, M/L 7-1. WIN PLACE SHOW.  Makes an equipment change tonight going from open to blind bridle. He’s the hot and cold type that always makes him risky and tough to predict.  He’s dangerous at this level when he decides to show up and the value price expected tonight is worth a WPS try on the bridle change alone.  Let’s hope Brewer has him fired up when it counts the most.

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