Lost Aptitude says Bronco, we hope not….
June 12, 2010
SATURDAY IS A DOUBLEHEADER DAY FOR BRONCOBUSTER.
It’s Saturday and lots of racing to choose from! Both the flats and harness a like.. The action kicks off in the afternoon with a traditional card from Chruchill Downs. The day features many stake races, including a pair of grade III’s on the lawn with the Regret Stakes and the Jefferson Cup Stakes, followed by a beauty in the Grade I. Stephen Foster Handicap. The day also includes a $ 200,000 event that will feature fan favorite Rachel Alexanadra. Her morning line is so low, we will by pass that race altogether. Not that she’s unbeatable, but, the fact is on top of a very short price expected, the field comes up very short! It will be hard to find the type of value that would be worth the risk. I am hoping for some potential value plays that could land a nice positive ROI. The ROI will be needed as a parlay into the evening card from Mohawk. With the North America Cup fast approaching, some of the 3 yr. old’s will use The Burlington Stakes to see where they measure up. I’ll take a look at 3 divisions and see if any of my top selections can make it to the winner’s circle! Best of luck and may the horse be with you!
SATURDAY MATINEE FROM CHURCHILL-
Best Bet- JEFFERSON CUP STAKES. Race 7 #7 Lost Aptitude, M/L 5-2. WIN WAGER. Garret Gomez in town for some nice stakes engagements, including this Dale Romans trainee. Draws the perfect post for the Jefferson Cup Stakes and interestingly enough, Romans has the top 2 in the race. His other charge Guy’s Reward is a luke warm second choice. Not hard to take having the top 2 calls in a graded stakes. Pressure’s on the barn, be interesting to see if they can actually run 1-2. I’ll stick with Gomez and use a partial part of the bank roll on him.
Next Best- THE REGRET STAKES, Race 9 #11 Beautician, M/L 5-1. WIN WAGER. This gal has been in some very high profile races and been in some very difficult spots. Not the easiest spot here in this graded stakes, but, i like how’s she’s perfomed on the synthetic and will handle the weeds in this spot. This grade III. is well within her scope!
Value Bet- THE STEPHEN FOSTER HANDICAP, Race 10 EXA BOX, 4-5-11. #4 Duke of Mischief, M/L 6-1. Interesting sort who will offer up a square price in both the win odds and the EXA probables. He’s never hit the board in a Grade I. event, so that task at hand today is daunting. We’ll excuse his performance in the DONN HCP agains the likes of Quality Road, who won as he pleased that day. Off that dismal effort had every reason not to show up for his latest, but, he showed up with the running shoes on and was a fast closing second, while posting a decent beyer. The workout pattern at Calder is very encouraging! Don’t overlook this guy! #5 Arson Squad, M/L 8-1. OK pay attention folks! This guy has 1.1 million in the bank and he’s from a $ 3500 stud fee! Dreams can come true in this business! Looks for a natural triple here and has already won 3 races at this very distance. His last race is very telling, a win right here at Churchill Downs with a huge beyer = one of the top weights in this one. Must be respected and the work out pattern is also positive with a big work 2 back followed by a slow breeze just to keep him tight! #11 Blame, M/L 3-1. Hasn’t run a beyer lower than a 100 in almost a year! Shows up everytime the marbles are on the table and attracts a big money guy in Gomez! Never been out of the top 3 in any race! and is 4/4 at todays distance! Hard to ignore and should be the deserved choice in an otherwise wide open affair. A must on all the gimmick plays! A couple of horses i chose to bypass in this spot include General Quarters who i feel is up against it in this spot. I just simply feel he’s a better choice on the synthetic or turf over this spot. Macho Again won this race last year, but, i get the feeling he is just not the same horse he was a year ago.
EVENING CARD- MOHAWK
Best Bet- BURLINGTON STAKES, Race 5 #4 Sportswriter, M/L 1-1. WIN WAGER. Would be a nice double your money proposition and his last race against older conditioned horses was a very credible effort for his 3 yr. old debut race. He was closing like a freight train in :26 which should serve him well for this. No reason to think he won’t go forward off of that and then be ready for the NAC!
Next Best- BURLINGTON STAKES, Race 8 #3 Rock Me Please, M/L 8-1. WIN WAGER. O.K going out on a limb in a race where the wagering will be dominated by 2 foes. Both Rock N Roll Hanover, and Ideal Matters are expected to take extreme support and deservedly so. Rock N Roll is coming off a huge effort in a championship race at the Big M. This is strictly a tuneup race for bigger things to come and this might be a spot to look for some value. Going to the well one more time on a horse conditioned by Robert McIntosh. He gets them ready and even though he is ambitiously placed, he has a license to up end the apple cart, if he trips out. I’d consider him on all the gimmicks to get the value!
Value Bet- BURLINGTON STAKES, Race 9 #4 BP Chimo, M/L 7-1. WIN PLACE SHOW. Should love the long stretch this track gives him. He is a strong closer and been making great strides at Georgian Downs. His late kick in the Upper Canada stakes was eye catching, but on that 5/8ths post had to settle for the show, when he ran out of real estate. He was full of the same pace the week before that in the elim which made it a tough choice for Jamieson. A bad post is the only thing that prevented Jody from giving him a boost of confidence. I fully expect to see a late kick from this guy tonight and across the board should be a good option for a horse that will have a square price..
go gettum- broncobuster
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